Dec. 20
Makers Wanted Bahamas Bowl
Buffalo vs. Charlotte +6.5 O/U 57
Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium
Nassau – Bahamas
2 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App |
This is your typical running team vs passing team matchup. Buffalo runs and can stop the run. Charlotte does run the ball some at 5 yards per carry but their defense is quite bad.
Lot’s of people are fading the Mac teams this year but I am not so sure that most of Conference USA is better than the Mac. Buffalo has a .3 net yards per play advantage here but will they behave themselves in the Bahamas?
Lean Buffalo -6.5
Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl
Utah State vs. Kent State +6.5 O/U 65
Toyota Stadium
Frisco, Texas
7:30 p.m., ESPN2/ESPN App |
Kent State never make’s bowl games and I am very proud of these guys for doing so. They made me some money this year from plays made before the season as well as during. My Power Ratings have this game an 8.5 point spread here. My question is how motivated is Utah State after a let down type season with a new coach? It’s not like this game is by sandy beaches. Another distraction just happened when a few Utah State players were busted for Marijuana.
Lean Kent State +6.5
Dec. 21
Mitsubishi Motors Las Vegas Bowl
Boise State vs. Washington -3 O/U 49.5
Sam Boyd Stadium
Las Vegas
7:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN App |
I find it strange that Chris Peterson got stuck coaching against his old team that kicked off his career for is last game at Washington. Washington should be very motivated here to win one for their coach and Boise State is good in bowl games and hey belong here for winning their conference. What worries me about the Washington side is that these players didn’t fair well down the stretch. Boise State has a slight edge in yards per play over Washington but it’s not hard to see who had the harder schedule.
Lean Washington -3
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Appalachian State vs. UAB +16.5 O/U 48
New Orleans, Louisiana
9 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App |
I like Appalachian State here but I can’t really trust them in the second half. I can see them playing all of their players up 23 points and giving up a TD or 2. App State is a powerhouse in the Sun Belt averaging 40 points per game and only allowing 20. They went to the ACC’s North Carolina and beat them, they went to SEC country playing South Carolina and beat them as well UAB has has the easiest schedule in college football in a bad conference. They only played one power 5 team in Tennessee and they lost by over 20 points to Tennessee. The only thing that the Blazers can do ok is to run run the ball and the Mountaineers can stop that and especially against a weaker conference opponent. Being that I can’t trust the Mountaineers to not give up garbage at the end, I will play them in the first half -9 ish.
New Mexico Bowl
Central Michigan vs. San Diego State -3.5 O/U 41
Dreamstyle Stadium
Albuquerque, New Mexico
I think the wrong team is favored here. Going to New Mexico where San Diego State goes every year isn’t exactly a rewared. When i bet the Aztecs over 8 wins this year I must say that it was based on their schedule. This team is the most fraudulent 9-3 team in all of football. Now they do have a good defense this year but a very lethargic offense. As a matter of fact, this offense is so bad that they are dead even in yards per play with a 9-3 record. Not often when you see that. I think avoiding Boise State, Wyoming and Air Force really helped them out this year. Central Michigan has a coach that has been in the Mountain West at Colorado State and knows how to play a Rocky Long team. The Chippewa’s are a .85 net yards per play here and their strength is against the run allowing only 3.3 yards per rush. If they can score a few points here, I do not see how San Diego state can get back into this game.
Cure Bowl
Liberty vs. Georgia Southern -4.5 O/U 58
Exploria Stadium
Orlando, Florida
2:30 p.m., CBS Sports Network |
You might need a cure from depression after watching this game. I really hope that I don’t have to watch this Bowl game. Maybe I can finish Christmas shopping or something. Liberty has had an easier schedule in whole than Georgia Southern in my opinion and are a positive .6 net yards per play. Georgia Southern has a net negative .3 yards per play here. Liberty has shown some flashes this year beating teams like Buffalo and keeping it within one score at BYU but they are probably the worst bowl team here. Georgia Southern runs the option and their best win was against Appalachian State. I have the Golden Eagles by 3 in my power ratings but the way to beat them is the pass and Liberty seems to be decent at that throwing for over 3400 yards this year. The question is will Liberty capitalize on their possessions here against an option team.
Lean Liberty +4.5
Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl
SMU vs. Florida Atlantic +3.5 O/U 70.5
FAU Stadium
Boca Raton, Florida
3:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN App |
Home game for Florida Atlantic – Ironically they played their last bowl appearance here 2 years ago and destroyed Akron. Many people say that this is a great spot for SMU here and a Bad spot for Florida Atlantic due to Lane Kiffen moving on to Ole Miss and their defensive coordinator Glenn Spencer stepping in as Interim but I differ at bit here. I think SMU had higher goals most of the year than this bowl game and may be less motitvated than some people think. I also think these kids will want to play hard over in Boca Raton showing well for new coach Willy Taggert. The best bet in this game is the over. FAU averages 35 points per game and SMU averages 43. Neither defense is good and both teams play fast. FAU ranks 16th in plays per game at 77 and SMU ranks 3rd at 81. I expect a shootout here.
Over 70.5 – 3 star premium shared
Camellia Bowl
Florida International vs. Arkansas State -2.5 O/U 62.5
Cramton Bowl
Montgomery, Alabama
5:30 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App |
I had such high hopes for FIU coming into this season. I thought their defense would improve enough to be conference USA champions. Not so much. Arkansas State isn’t the high powered offense that we remember and both teams are pretty even in yards per play at about 0. The intriguing thing about this matchup is that FIU is good against the pass and we know that Arkansas State is a passing team. FIU is bad against the run and Arkansas state only averages 3.6 yards per carry. Being that FIU can somewhat run the ball at 4.45 yards per carry and Arkansas State can’t stop the run allowing 5.11, they should be able to win this game if they don’t . I am going to wait till a 3 pops for a small play
FIU +3 – 1 star
Dec. 23
Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl
UCF vs. Marshall +17.5 O/U 61.5
Raymond James Stadium
Tampa, Florida
2:30 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App |
This is kind of a home game for Central Florida only being 100 miles away. I saw a stat from Chris Fallica stating that there were 3 bowl favorites of 17.5 or more the last 15 years and they all covered. Marshall is such a strange team to me. Went to Boise and only lost by 7 yet they just lost at Charlotte a month ago. My Power Ratings have this game UCF -13.25 if you don’t factor in home field. Maybe 16 with home field giving a little bit back to Marshall. I personally think that Marshall is just happy to make a bowl game here and they are a bit out of their league playing UFC. They need to limit possessions this game in order to keep it closer by running the ball. UCF has a pretty good defense on paper but this game is probably one that I won’t be involved with. This is a lot of points for a Doc Holiday team who performs well in bowls.
No Play
Dec. 24
SoFi Hawai’i Bowl
Hawai’i vs. BYU -2.0 O/U 64
Aloha Stadium
Honolulu
8 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App
Home game for Hawaii but does that even matter? Hard to Tell. There is a question here. Is BYU that much different than Boise State this year? I really don’t think so. They had a much harder schedule in my opinion than Boise having to play Washington, USC, Utah, Tennessee. The Toledo loss was Ugly but they really regrouped and ended up beating Boise State before going on a big run. BYU plays the same way as Boise. They can pound the ball and they play above average defense. BYU also plays exceptionally well against the pass allowing only 200 passing yards per game ranking 36th in the nation. That’s pretty good with their schedule. Hawaii has to pass well to beat teams to it feeds right into BYU’s strength. I think BYU pounds the ball down Hawaii’s throats this game. My Power ratings have this game a 6.25 point spread and that is giving Hawaii 2 points of home field advantage. I see BYU walking away with this one.
BYU -2 – 3 star premium shared
