A huge thanks to Stuckey from The Action Network for providing data on transfers, opt-outs, and injuries.
Friday, Jan. 3
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl: North Texas vs. Texas State -13.5 O/U 62
Location: Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
Time: 4 p.m.
TV Network: ESPN
North Texas’s Motivation: High – They always play close to home and get to beat in state rival.
Texas State’s Motivation: High – They get to beat in state rival.
Home: North Texas is only 46 miles away, but Texas State is only 275 miles. I will give North Texas 1 point here.
Key Guys Missing:
Texas State Transfer Portal
- Starting RB Ismail Mahdi (committed to Arizona)
- Starting RT Alex Harkey (committed to Oregon)
- Starting CB Josh Eaton (committed to Michigan State)
- Starting DT Terry Webb (375 snaps)
- Starting DT Tavian Coleman (355 snaps)
- DT Dominique Ratcliff (318 snaps)
- DE Ben Bell (opted out earlier in season)
Texas State Potential Opt-Out
- LG Nash Jones
Starting TE Konner Fox didn’t play in the finale. DE Steven Parker (367 snaps) missed the final three games.
It looks as if starting quarterback Jordan McCloud won’t play “significant snaps”.
North Texas Transfer Portal
- Starting QB Chandler Morris (committed to Virginia)
- Starting WR DT Sheffield (committed to Rutgers)
- Starting TE Oscar Hammond (committed to Oregon State)
- Starting C Tyler Mercer (committed to Kansas)
- LG Leke Asenuga (585 snaps; been injured)
- WR Nick Rempert (257 snaps)
- RT MaKyi Lee (246 snaps)
- S Jayven Anderson (181 snaps)
- CB Kerry Williams (113 snaps)
Without Morris, the Mean Green will turn to true freshman Drew Mestemaker, who came in for Morris as the backup this season.
Coach Bowl ATS:
- Texas State: GJ Kinne, 1-0
- North Texas: Eric Morris, 0-0
Net YPP: Texas State +.86
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: North Texas needs to run the ball to be successful here. They are missing their quarterback, which should signal Texas State to stack the box.
Verdict: Texas State should be able to throw all over North Texas if they can’t control the clock. This game could spiral as well as North Texas won’t be able to play catchup.
Play: Lean North Texas +13.5
Duke’s Mayo Bowl: Minnesota vs. Virginia Tech +9.5 O/U 43
Location: Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
Time: 7:30 p.m.
TV Network: ESPN
Minnesota’s Motivation: High – PJ Fleck at 4-1 ATS in bowl games gets his kids up to play.
Virginia Tech’s Motivation: Medium – Very disappointing season for the Hokies, but could end on a good note.
Home: Virginia Tech gets a huge bump for being only 176 miles away. 2.5 points of home field.
Key Guys Missing:
Minnesota Transfer Portal
- Starting RT Phillip Daniels (signed with Ohio State)
- RB Jordan Nubin (60 snaps)
Minnesota Potential Opt-Outs
- DE Danny Stiggow
- OT Aireontae Ersery (sounds like he won’t play)
- DE Jah Joyner
- CB Justin Walley (declared for NFL Draft)
- OG Tyler Cooper
OL Quinn Carroll said he will play in a bowl, while S Aidan Gousby missed the final three games.
Virginia Tech Transfer Portal
- Starting LT Xavier Chaplin (signed with Auburn)
- Starting C Braelin Moore (likely to sign with LSU)
- Starting CB Mansoor Delane (committed to LSU)
- Starting S Mose Phillips (signed with Missouri)
- LB Sam Brumfield (378 snaps)
- LB Keli Lawson (276 snaps; committed to UCF)
- RB Malachi Thomas (168 snaps)
Virginia Tech Opt-Outs
- DE Antwaun Powell-Ryland
- DT Aeneas Peebles
- WR Da’Quan Felton
- WR Jaylin Lane
- CB Dorian Strong
Tuten, RG Kaden Moore, DT Wilfried Pene and SS Keonta Jenkins all weren’t spotted at a recent practice. Virginia Tech could be down 14 starters.
Keep an eye on Virginia Tech’s QB situation, as both QB1 Kyron Drones and QB2 Collin Schlee ended the year injured. As of Dec. 13, Drones is not expected to play, according to head coach Brent Pry. It will either be Schlee or Pop Watson at QB.
Coach Bowl ATS:
- Virginia Tech: Brent Pry, 1-0
- Minnesota: PJ Fleck, 4-1
Net YPP: Minnesota +.06
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Both of these teams look quite equal on paper. The problem is all of the opt outs for Virginia Tech. What kind of team will they have to face the Gophers? Minnesota has the better offense and defense.
Verdict: This spread has gotten too large to play the Gophers. Just a lean.
Play: Lean Gophers -9 and under 43. Lean Minnesota team total over 27
Saturday, Jan. 4
Bahamas Bowl: Buffalo vs. Liberty +3 O/U 50.5
Location: Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium (Nassau, Bahamas)
Time: 11 a.m.
TV Network: ESPN2
Buffalo’s Motivation: Medium Low – No reason to care too much in the Bahamas. Pete Lembo is 0-2 ATS in bowls. Time to party.
Liberty’s Motivation: Medium Low – Also time to party for Liberty. Jamey Chadwell is 0-3 ATS in bowls.
Home: None
Key Guys Missing:
Liberty Transfer Portal
- Starting QB Kaidon Salter (signed with Colorado)
- Starting LG Jordan White (committed to Vanderbilt)
- Starting RT Xavior Gray (committed to Northwestern)
- Starting LT Jordan Hall
- Starting DL Bryce Dixon
- DL Eliyt Nairne (298 snaps; committed to Tulane)
Former App State transfer Ryan Burger will get the start at quarterback. Head coach Jamey Chadwell also stated that players in the portal won’t play in the bowl game and he expects some more opt outs.
Liberty Injuries
Starting S Quinton Reese didn’t play in the finale. Neither did starting TE Bentley Hanshaw.
Buffalo Transfer Portal
- K Upton Bellenfant (committed to Texas Tech; still on depth chart)
- WR Javien Cuff (210 snaps)
Buffalo Injuries
The Buffalo depth chart for its bowl game remains unchanged from its season finale.
Bowl Coach ATS:
- Buffalo: Pete Lembo, 0-2
- Liberty: Jamey Chadwell, 0-3
Net YPP: Liberty +1.15
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Liberty shows to be the better team on paper in every EPA category, yet they had a pretty easy schedule. The Mac has been matching up well against other conferences in bowl play.
Verdict: Liberty on their backup quarterback and down 3 starters on the offensive line could really hurt.
Play: Buffalo ML -134 for 2 stars
References:
