December 22nd
The Famous Idaho Potato Bowl –
Tulane vs Nevada +3 O/U 56 –
This has to be the worst bowl in the nation. There are no fans at the game, you are traveling to a cold destination, and it could be freezing with bad weather. In staying that, I do like the matchup. Nevada has obviously had plenty of games against Boise State here and Tulane is certainly in for a temperature change. According to my power ratings, I have Tulane 6.75 points better than Nevada although Tulane has only a +.1 yards per play to Nevada’s 1.1. Tulane has certainly faced stiffer competition so its hard for me to guage YPP too much here. One thing is that it will be a little windy and the ground game will come more into play. Tulane at 5.0 yards per rush and giving up only 3.28 with their stiff D line. Nevada 4.21 yards per rush and giving up 3.8.
I lean Tulane here -3 and lean the under 56
Boca Raton
UCF vs BYU -7 O/U 73.5
This is certainly more of a home game here for UCF and they will certainly have some fans. Central Florida is still that high flying offense with a below average defense and BYU is very solid on both ends and their only loss was playing a bad game at Coastal Carolina. My power ratings have BYU only a 4 point favorite on a neutral field but both teams should be motivated here. BYU has a monstrous +2.9 YPP to UCF’s +.9 but UCF certainly had a harder schedule. I think that BYU is probably going to win this game and they have the much better efficiency numbers but I also know that Central Florida can back door lots of teams so I am not running to the table to lay -6.5. I also know that Boca Raton is only a few hour drive for UCF and some fans.
Lean UCF + 6.5 – Lean Under 73.5
December 23rd
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Louisiana Tech vs Georgia Southern -6 O/U 49.5
LA tech is a team who lost a ton of guys last year and it took a while for this team to develop and look decent. They finished their conference solid beating UAB and North Texas and then lost bad to TCU. Georgia Southern is that option team that throws the ball once in a while. They are amazing on the ground at 5.4 yards per carry and only giving up 5.25 yards per play on defense. My power ratings have Georgia Southern an 8 point favorite on a neutral field but it is more of a home spot for Louisiana tech and I have to give them a point for that. Another thing that keeps me off Georgia Southern is that Skip Holtz is 8-3 ATS in bowl games which worries me some.
Lean Louisiana Tech at the 6
The Montgomery Bowl
FAU vs Memphis -8 O/U 50.5
Memphis really took a big step back this year and were not even one of the top 3 teams in the conference. FAU on the other hand took aslo a step back as well under Willie Taggert. FAU plays much slower this year and struggled to score much on offense. I have Memphis -13.25 on my power ratings so this is a play. Both of these disappointing teams are about +.1 yards per play but I think that Memphis can get margin and should be able to handle this team.
Memphis -8 – 1.5 star premium shared play
