Clemson vs Alabama -6 O/U 59
Well I must say that about 2 months ago I had Clemson about 9 point dogs to Alabama in the power ratings. What has changed? Well really nothing has changed except that about 6 weeks ago I caught on to who Clemson really is. They are not who we thought they were! I kept thinking about their Texas A&M game in the back of my mind and then finally realized that A) A&M is a great team and B) Trevor Lawrence is a HUGE upgrade over Kelly Bryant. As a matter of fact the upgrade was so big that Clemson kind of became Alabama. CLEMSON IS ALABAMA. Let’s see what we have here. We have probably the second best coach in College Football with Dabo Sweeny. We have best defensive line in college football in Clemson and without Dexter Lawrence they still can rival Alabama. As far as the defensive backs go, how did Notre Dame look passing the ball against Clemson? From a Skill position perspective we have running backs Damian Harris, Najee Harris and Josh Jacobs which became a 3 headed monster for Alabama averaging 5.3 yards per rush but looking at Clemson, they have the number 1 rushing offense with Travis Etienne leading the way averaging 6.7 yards per rush. Clemson Wide Receivers Tee Higgens, Justyn Ross and Amari Rodgers have been matchup nightmares for defensive backs while Alabama’s Jerry Jeudy, Jaylen Waddle and Henry Ruggs III have been the same force in a harder division. Now looking that the QBs, is there that much of a difference between what we have seen from Tua and Trevor Lawrence? Both QBs can make all the NFL throws and play very confident and poised. They are extremely accurate in the middle of the field and have their timing down to a milisecond of where their receivers are on the field. From a yards per play perspective Bama is second in offense at 7.9 yards per play but Clemson is high as well at 6.7 with the passing game edge to Alabama and the Running edge to Clemson. Clemson’s defensive yards per play shows better than Alabama’s showing 4.1 yards per play to Alabama’s 4.7. The Net yards per play advantage here is Alabama at .3 which isn’t too much at all. So why the 6 point spread do you ask? Well I think that you are paying a 3 point premium for the name ALABAMA and the fact that they had a harder conference schedule than Clemson. When you look at the non conference schedule you have to give it to Clemson playing Texas A&M and South Carolina while bama played Louisville and the Louisiana Ragin Cajuns. Most public power ratings has Bama winning by 1-3 points and my power ratings has Bama by 2.5 with Trevor Lawrence on a neutral field. Because of all of this I have to take the points here at +6 and don’t forget to sprinkle. If this game for some reason is left up to the rushing game due to shut down defenses then the edge has to be Clemson.
Clemson +6 and season the Money Line!
