Whenever there are coaching changes, as sports bettors, we have to recognize how it will affect every facet of that team going forward. There are not just personnel and scheme changes, but there are also pace changes that we all must be aware of in order to correctly handicap the total as well as the side. Some of the research involved is that we can find out the history of these coaches and how they run their respective phase of their previous teams. Were they coordinators that ran the same schemes? Were they assistants who might follow the same footsteps as their leaders? It is great to try and find an edge this way and I decided to put some work into is so that I could share my thoughts on attempting to predict the future tempos of the teams with new coaches for the 2023 season.
Please see bottom of article for Kyle Hunter’s contest entry
1. Luke Fickell, Wisconsin
Previous Job: Head Coach, Cincinnati
Speed Change – Slow to fast: Wisconsin was one of the slowest teams in football ranking 121st in seconds per play. They should be much faster now mainly due to Phil Longo coming in from North Carolina as the offensive coordinator who was 26th in Tempo. He ran more of an air raid style offense.
Projection: 35th in tempo
2. Jeff Brohm, Louisville
Previous Job: Head Coach, Purdue
Speed Change – Medium to medium/fast: Jeff Brohm is an offensive mind who rarely runs the ball. Louisville was 62nd in tempo in 2022 and I expect them to bump that up.
Projection: 35th in tempo
3. Deion Sanders, Colorado
Previous Job: Head Coach, Jackson State
Speed Change – Medium to fast: Coach prime may have played defense, but he also knows how to get his son who is quarterback to push the ball quickly down field like he did at Jackson State. Let’s not forget the Sean Lewis affect coming in at offensive coordinator. I see a fast team.
Projection: 19th in Tempo
4. Jamey Chadwell, Liberty
Previous Job: Head Coach, Coastal Carolina
Speed Change – Medium to slow: Even though Coastal put of points over the Chadwell years, this team only ranked 110th in tempo last. It was the poor defense and good offense for Chadwell that helped put up the points.
5. Matt Rhule, Nebraska
Previous Job: Head Coach, Carolina Panthers
Speed Change – Medium/fast to Fast: Matt Rhule played a fast game at Baylor and I expect him to spice it up now that he’s back in college football.
Projection: 28th in Tempo
6. Hugh Freeze, Auburn
Previous Job: Head Coach, Liberty
Speed Change – Slow to Medium/fast: Hugh Freeze is an offensive mind who will pace it up in his game. I expect him to keep a decent pace like he did at liberty around in 38th tempo.
Projection: 37th in Tempo
7. Tom Herman, Florida Atlantic
Previous Job: TV Analyst/Head Coach at Texas (2020)
Speed Change – Fast to Fast: FAU played fast but so does Tom Herman even going back to his Ohio State roots. FAU ranked 20th in pace last year and I expect a slight slow down.
Projection: 26th in Tempo
8. Kenny Dillingham, Arizona State
Previous Job: Offensive Coordinator, Oregon
Speed Change – Slow to Fast: ASU ranked 101st in Tempo last year, but Dilly Dilly knew how to spice it up for some drives at Oregon ranking 52nd in pace of play. That number a little deceiving with some of the blow outs that they were in involved in.
Projection: 43rd in Tempo
9. Ryan Walters, Purdue
Previous Job: Defensive Coordinator, Illinois
Speed Change: Medium/fast to Medium: Illinois Defense was amazing last year and I have to expect that Purdue slows down some going from the Jeff Brohm offense to new OC Graham Harrell who did a stint last year at West Virginia before being at USC. I just think coach Walters puts the handcuffs on him some.
Projection: 60th in Tempo
10. G.J. Kinne, Texas State
Previous Job: Head Coach, Incarnate Ward
11. Troy Taylor, Stanford
Previous Job: Head Coach, Sacramento State
Speed Change – Medium to Fast: Stanford was number 56 in pace last year. Troy Taylor’s three years at Sacramento State was all about the points averaging more than 40 per game from 2022.
Projection: 25th in Tempo
Previous Job: Offensive Coordinator, Washington State
Speed Change – Very fast to medium/fast: Eric Morris was the OC at Washington State who ranked 36th in pace. I expect this North Texas team who used to be a top paced team a 16th from 2022 to regress back to around 31st.
Projection: 31st in Tempo
13. Kevin Wilson, Tulsa
Previous Job: Co-Offensive Coordinator, Ohio State
Speed Change – Medium/fast to medium/slow Kevin Wilson did recent stints at Ohio State and before that Indiana as a head coach. I would assume that he keeps a slower pace like Ryan Day did in Columbus.
Projection: 89th in Tempo
Previous Job: Defensive Coordinator, Arkansas
Speed Change – Medium/slow to medium: This was a strange hire being that his coach hasn’t found a lot off success in his previous teams. He’s a defensive guy but his new offensive coordinator Brennan Marion comes in from Texas which had a faster pace under Steve Sarkisian. I think he keeps this team in the middle.
Projection: 54th in Tempo
Previous Job: Defensive Coordinator, Mississippi State
Speed Change – Medium to medium: After the passing of Mike Leach, DC Zach Arnette got promoted to head coach. It is true that Leach did slow his offense down some before his tragic passing. Arnette has a defensive mind and their new offensive coordinator Kevin Barbay was at Appalachian State and Central Michigan. App State was only 64th in pace last year.
Projection: 70th in Tempo
16. Alex Golesh, USF
Previous Job: Offensive Coordinator, Tennessee
Speed Change – Slow to very fast: Golesh is a Josh Heuple disciple who plays at some of the highest paces in the land. I expect USF to run and gun this year even though it might mean losing by lots of points.
Projection: 5th in Tempo
17. Brian Newberry, Navy
Previous Job: Defensive Coordinator, Navy
Speed Change – Very slow to very slow: Fire the coach and promote the DC. You do not see that often. I do not understand this hire when it’s basically replacing with the same kind of guy with a slightly different option scheme.
Projection: 122nd in Tempo
Previous Job: Head Coach, Louisville
Speed Change – Medium to Medium: Coming from Louisville, Scott Satterfield’s tempo was almost equal to the Bearcats in the mid 60s. We will see more quarterback runs.
Projection: 64th in Tempo
19. Brent Key, Georgia Tech
Previous Job: Interim Head Coach, Georgia Tech
Speed Change – Medium to medium: Brent Key averaged around 44th in pace last year and I expect it to slow down some with new offensive coordinator who was an analyst at Georgia in Buster Faulkner.
20. Biff Poggi, Charlotte
Previous Job: Off-Field Assistant, Michigan
Speed Change – Medium to slow: Charlotte was 71st in Pace while Biff Poggi comes from Michigan that ranked 121st in pace. I expect a slower game.
Projection – 114th in Tempo
21. Lance Taylor, Western Michigan
Previous Job: Offensive Coordinator, Louisville
Speed Change – Slow to medium: Western Michigan averaged about 91st in Tempo last year while Lance Taylor under Scott Satterfield was in the middle.
Projection: 59th in Tempo
22. Kenni Burns, Kent State
Previous Job: Running Backs Coach, Minnesota
Speed Change – Very fast to very slow: Going from Sean Lewis to a Gophers guy like Kenny Burns is a massive shift in philosophy. Kent State was 8th in pace last year and I expect them pretty low.
Projection: 123rd in Tempo
Previous Job: Offensive Coordinator, NC State
Speed Change – Very slow to slow: Coastal as mentioned earlier was 110th in pace last year. Tim Beck from North Carolina State wasn’t exactly a light it up team unless they had to keep up in the ACC. They were 77th in pace last year.
Projection: 106th in Tempo
24. Trent Dilfer, UAB
Previous Job: Head Coach, Lipscomb Academy
Speed Change – Very slow to slow: One of the strangest hires in football brings in Trent Dilfer who has 0 college coaching experience. I have to assume slow but it isn’t like UAB played fast at 12oth in pace last year.
Projection: 85th in Tempo
Kyle Hunter’s College Football Pickem Contest!
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