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Iowa State vs Arizona State -2 O/U 51
Man do I want ASU to win this game, but there are two problems that I have with them. The First issue is that ASU lost their best wide receiver in Jordyn Tyson to a collar bone fracture. He has over double the catches than the next guy. The next problem is that Arizona State tends to choke some of their leads away like we have seen vs Mississippi State, Kansas, Kansas State, UCF and BYU. When will that crush them? Other than that, from a matchup perspective, the Devils should be able to run all over the Clones as Iowa State’s defense only ranks 68th in opponent rushing success rate and 85th in opponent rush EPA. Iowa State gives up 5.02 rushing yards per attempt. This needs to be a Scattlebo game for ASU to win.
Lean ASU -2
Ohio vs Miami Oh -3 O/U 44.5
I am glad that these two teams are facing off as they are the best in the MAC. Neither of them did well in the non-conference, and earlier in the year they both faced off with the Bobcats losing to the Redhawks 30-20. I think that Ohio has much improved since that loss. Parker Navarro has figured it out as the Bobcats rank 53rd in passing success rate compared to Brett Gabbert who ranks 40th. The Redhawks can not run the ball ranking ranking 124th in rushing success rate and 88th in rushing EPA. The Bobcats run the ball well ranking 30th in rush EPA. The running game is where I think that Ohio has a shot ranking 19th in yards per rush to Miami ranking 73rd in opponent rush EPA. The problem for the Bobcats would be if this game becomes a shootout, but being that they have played already, I give Ohio the advantage. Miami has a slight yards per play advantage at 1.57 to 1.23, but I think that the Ohio offense is more balanced ranking 15th in 3rd down conversions to Miami ranking 122nd. I think Ohio breaks through the tough Redhawk defense and has a shot to win this game.
Ohio +3 -120
Georgia vs Texas -2.5 O/U 49.5
Well, being that the CFB committee said that recent results is playing a factor this year, let’s do that for this handicap. Over the past four games, Georgia lost by 18 points to Ole Miss, they beat Tennessee, they allowed over 20 points to one of the worst teams in college football in UMASS, and they got some big ref help to beat Georgia Tech at home after eight overtimes. Georgia is one of the worst ATS teams in college football at 3-9. Texas just happened to win all four of their SEC games by double digits. They are a healthy 7-5 ATS this season. Ok, enough with that. We all know that Georgia beat Texas in Texas already. This game is being played in Mercedes Benz Stadium in Georgia. I’ll give Georgia 2 points for home field. In saying that, I still have Texas a four point favorite here factoring in all of Georgia’s injuries. The Longhorns have a massive 1.18 net yards per play advantage over Georgia. They also have a much better defense this year ranking 2nd in defensive EPA to Georgia ranking 36th. I think that the fact that Texas already saw what Georgia definitely gives them an advantage here. I like the Longhorns to win the game, and I like them the first half as Georgia has been slow to start most of the time this season.
Texas ML Full game-134 – 2 stars
Marshall vs Louisiana -6 O/U 56.5
This game will be played at Cajun Field in Louisiana. It’s a home game for the Cajuns. What bugs me about this game is that even though I have the Cajuns power rated a few points better than the Herd, the metrics really like Marshall here. Since Louisiana lost quarterback Ben Wooldridge to a broken collarbone, Chandler Fields stepped in and has been great, yet he played the bottom feeders of the Sun belt in Troy and ULM Monroe. Marshall should be able to run the ball ranking 39th in rush EPA to Louisiana who ranks a terrible 120th in defensive rush EPA. Let’s face it though, Neither team is great at stopping the run as Marshall gives up 4.5 yards per attempt just like Louisiana. Marshall is the best ATS team in college football right now at 10-2. I have a strong lean to Marshall but make sure you get the six.
Marshall +6 – 2 stars
Penn State vs Oregon -3.5 O/U 49.5
I have huge problems with this game because the metrics actually side with Penn State as they rank 10th in offensive EPA and 10th in defensive EPA to Oregon ranking 11th and 13th respectively. The Lions also have a +.37 yards per play advantage. In saying that, James Franklin is terrible in big games and he probably should have lost at USC and at Minnesota.
Penn State ML Sprinkle +150
Clemson vs SMU -2.5 O/U 57
This will be the last conference championship game of the season. Very interesting how Clemson has snuck in with that horrible Miami loss last weekend. This game will be played at bank of America stadium in Charlotte North Carolina. I find this spread very interesting as I have to wonder if you cover the team names, would you still only have SMU by 2.5 points? The Mustangs have been amazing this year. In their only loss to BYU this team didn’t even have their starting quarterback Kevin Jennings in place as Preston Stone was still considered their top guy. Looking at the schedules, they are both almost equally ranked on Sagarin, so the metrics can really tell us the correct story. SMU has a nice net yards per play at 1.8 compared to Clemson sitting at just +1. The Stangs also have a pretty big advantage though the air ranking 5th in passing EPA to 55th for Clemson. The Tigers used to really lean on their defense, but this squad is certainly not one of their best ranking 41st in success rate and 40th in defensive EPA to SMU who ranks 13th in success rate and 4th in EPA. The only way Clemson will be able to move the ball is on the ground where they rank 14th in yards per rush, but the problem is that SMU’s defense ranks an amazing 2nd in yards per rush only allowing 2.8. As long as the Mustangs take care of the ball, they should have a lot of success against the Tigers and will have some explosive plays. I like SMU below the three and this game should be more like a 6 point spread.
SMU -2.5 – 2.5 stars
