Even writing in “September 11th” in the title had me pause– please make sure to reflect upon those horrid events 20 years ago. As a post 9/11 veteran, I think the single greatest threat to America is our own lack of patriotism and community. It was rarely lacking in the military and it’s a shame it’s lacking so often day-to-day in our democracy. Remember how people respond during tragedy– with unadulterated love, acceptance, and courageous acts of heroism. That’s what America is all about. Onto our CFB free plays:
Pittsburgh -3.5 (-110), 1.5 units: This line was at -3 and now it’s up to -3.5 at most books, and I understand why. Taking an away favorite is never an easy thing, and it surely challenges the good practices of a pro sports bettor. Still, I think the Panthers are primed for a very solid season and I don’t anticipate much push-back from the Volunteers on Saturday. Tennessee won an uninspiring opener against Bowling Green. They dominated on the ground, accumulating 331 yards rushing, and limited the Falcons to only 6 points. Let us pause for a slow clap (or perhaps, let us not). It’s unsettling that on third down conversions, where teams often have to rely on their passing game, the Volunteers were below-average last week (and again, that was against a BOWLING GREEN defense). Tennessee only managed to go 7/15 on 3rd down conversions and the Falcons were very much in the game until later in the 3rd quarter. PS– Tennessee was at home last week, too. Super Senior QB Kenny Pickett will lead the Panthers into Neyland Stadium. As expected, last week’s opener was never in question against UMass. The Panthers cruised to a 51-7 victory, showing off their talent on both sides of the ball. The Panthers bring a rush defense that was top 15 into Saturday, along with a proficient passing attack supported by a ton of talent at receiver. If this line climbed up into the 5s or 6s, I might consider a play on the Volunteers, but sometimes the ol’ away favorite is simply the better team. The Panthers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games, while Tennessee is 8-23 ATS in their last 31 home games against a team with a winning road record. I’m backing Pittsburgh for 1.5 units.
Air Force -6 (-110), 2 units: Last year the Air Force Fighting Falcons dominated the Midshipmen in a 40-7 rout. This year might not be too different. Navy’s inconsistency at QB has been an issue for 2 seasons and running and it could spell real problems against a very efficient and talented Air Force backfield. The Falcons earned a staggering 370 yards on the ground last week against Lafayette. Even more staggering: 12 different rushers participated in this attack. Running backs Brad Roberts and Micah Davis each ran for 100 yards and QB Haaziq Daniels added another 72 yards on 19 attempts for good measure. Nine other runners helped gain the other 86 yards. The battle between military academies is always contentious and I’m sure Navy will have some tricks up their collective sleeves, but a 49-7 thrashing from Marshall last week doesn’t give us a ton of hope in the Midshipmen. That game was also at Annapolis. Navy accumulated 337 yards on the ground themselves but they couldn’t turn it into points. They also possessed the ball for 69% of that contest (41:19 minutes), and STILL couldn’t get more than 7 points. Navy has serious problems defending the pass (and on defense in general), and while the Falcons don’t usually pass much, I think they’ll take advantage early and often to gain an edge. The Falcons are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points– I’ll take the military branch that I served in to cover– go Air Force!
