When I first started chatting with the main man here at The Oddsbreakers Kiev, I explained to him that as a man in the central time zone with family that goes to bed early I love studying the late night games hard so I have some skin in the game with whatever is on TV late. We have coined these plays Late Night KNAction, and I have another one for you on Saturday in college football.
So far the CFB season has been good. 59-51 record thus far. +14.2 Units. 4-0 on Free Late night plays.
Tonight’s play takes us to the Mountain West and the Sports Gambling and Entertainment capital of the world, Las Vegas. San Jose St. is coming to town to take on the UNLV Rebels. San Jose St is a 4 point favorite with the number sitting at 44. San Jose St. enters the game at 3-4 with wins over Southern Utah, Hawaii and New Mexico St. Showing at 2-5 ATS so far this year. UNLV has yet to win a game and is 0-6, but has played 5 straight against very good competition and is 5-1 against the number.
Neither of these teams has been lighting up the scoreboard so far as they both are averaging just under 20 PPG. Starting QB Nick Starkel hasn’t played for San Jose State since 9/25 due to an arm injury and is currently not expected to play. That means backup Nick Nash is scheduled to start and he will carry a 56% completion percentage and 5TDs to 2 INTs into this game. They should be able to throw the ball a little, but they will need to improve the rushing attack to pull away in this game. They are averaging just 3.7 yards a carry and 107.9 YPG.
On Defense the Spartans rank 45th overall giving up 350 YPG and 23 PPG. The competition faced hasn’t been the cream of the crop. The best offenses they’ve played are USC at 29th and W. Michigan at 44th. They were very good against the run last week against SDSU, but gave up over 200 yards to Colorado St two weeks ago. With QB injury issues at UNLV stopping the run will be the key for SJSU tonight.
For UNLV the QB question marks are a glaring issue this evening. The man everything thinks of as the starter, Doug Brumfield, has missed the past two games with a back injury, and is day to day. That means on a short week in my mind he isn’t playing. Cam Friel, who has played well as a backup although not efficiently with a 61.6 Completion percentage 1/4 TD/INT injured his knee in 4th quarter last week and has been limited in practice. If he can’t go that leaves Justin Rogers who did not impress and took a sack in 1 of every 4 dropbacks last week or Miami transfer Tate Martell who has also been hurt and probably isn’t fully up to speed on the playbook. Whoever is under center will need the help of RB Charles Williams. If he can keep producing it should open up things for the passing game at least enough to be effective. He is averaging over 100 yards per game and 5.2 YPG. Against Utah St., he had 221 Yards and 3 TDs.
On defense the Rebels have shown some really great improvement over the first half of the year, especially in the trenches against the run. Where they still need work is against the pass as the are allowing a 73% completion percentage up to this point. The Rebels defense has been tested against 5 top 50 offenses thus far and while they have certainly given up their share of points the Spartans are not Iowa State on offense.
Here’s the key things I am looking at when betting this game. Charles Williams is the best offensive player on the field tonight. If he is able to find some room to run again, UNLV will be able to control the clock. Nick Nash has only gotten the Spartans into the end zone on 3 of 27 drives under center during his last two starts. With the total set at only 44 I don’t see anyone running away with game and expect it to stay close throughout. Playing in front of a big crowd at Alleigiant stadium should help the Rebels, as many people who are just visiting checked it out last week and I expect the same again tonight. It should be a Big Pro-Rebel crowd and there’s extra motivation from the new TD Slot Machine. The Rebels have played the much tougher competition so far, and are hungry for that first win. I am going to Ride the Rebels. Playing UNLV +4 (2.5 Units) and Sprinkle
