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Washington vs Oregon -10 O/U 65
This rematch should be fun at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas NV with no wind, no rain and perfect conditions. As we remember from earlier this year, Washington won this game at home earlier this year by three points. The Huskies probably should have lost the game had Duck’s coach Danny Lanning made some better decisions, but in saying that, does that constitute a spread of almost 10 points on a neutral field? I do not think so. Looking at the numbers, Oregon has the yards per play edge on both offense and defense, but this also doesn’t factor in that Oregon’s schedule has been a bit easier getting Oregon State and USC at home while Washington went to USC and Oregon State. Oregon also was fortunate enough to to avoid the third best team in the Pac 12 in Arizona while Washington had to go there to secure a win. Don’t get me wrong. I think that Oregon is the better team with the better defense, and I have them by almost 7 points in my power ratings, but the big issue with Oregon is that they don’t always show well away from home. This has been an issue for Bo Nix during his career. The Ducks away from home average 7.2 yards per play down from 8 YPP while the Huskies average 7.5 away up from 7 YPP respectively.
People can say that Washington finished the season poorly playing two close games against Oregon State and Washington State, but cold, rain, and wind were the main factors there and I can understand a passing team like Washington struggling in those conditions. Teams with great offenses can usually catch up to anyone. Washington’s offense ranks 8th in EPA and 3rd in yards per play. This is why I think that this spread is a bit too large. The final nail in the coffin for me is the coaching. Kalen Deboer is a better coach right now than Danny Lanning. This showed up in their last game, and it could show up again. This should be close and fun game to watch. I have Oregon by 5.5 points, but I have the total at 72. Both teams together average over 78 points per game and that counts garbage time. Take the dog and the over.
Over 65 – 2 stars
Oregon +10 – 2.5 stars
Appalachian State vs Troy -6 O/U 52.5
This is a bit of a home game for the Trojans as they take on a red hot Appalachian State team to attempt to retain the Sun Belt championship title. Looking at the numbers. There is a a clear advantage for Troy’s defense ranking 10th in defensive EPA to App state at 72. On the other side of the ball, App State’s offense has been humming ranking 17th in offensive EPA to Troy at 43rd. The Trojans have looked very sharp since their losses to Kansas State and James Madison, but I will say that they can be venerable. Troy doesn’t have the best special teams and only ranks 81st in field position. They also have been known to give up explosive plays from time to time as they rank 42nd in that category. The Trojans have a .73 yet yards per play advantage over the Mountaineers, but this handicap is about what have you done for me lately. Since App State’s loss to Old Dominion, the Mountaineers have racked up five wins in a row including great performances at Georgia State, at James Madison and vs Georgia Southern. This Mountaineers team held James Madison to 1.8 yards per carry and 6.3 yards per pass. I think that if any team can backdoor a spread, it is the Mountaineers who averages over 35 points per game and who also kept it close at a solid North Carolina team before they had gotten injured. Take the points.
App State +6 – 2 stars
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