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Boise State vs UNLV +3.5 O/U 63.5
This game is going to be awesome. Boise State has proven to be a serious contender for the college football playoffs. UNLV on the other hand has also proven to be smoking hot, and I think hat we have a good game coming up. The Broncos have the Heisman favorite in Ashton Jeanty and a hell of a rushing attack that is number 1 in rush EPA. It’s not like UNLV isn’t good either as they rank number 19 in offensive EPA, but I think that both defenses are leave less to be desired. UNLV allowed 44 points vs Syracuse, 34 vs Utah State and 25 against a bad Oregon State team. Boise State allowed 45 to Georgia Southern and 30 to UTAH State. I will say that as of late, their defense has improved some, but it is really hard to tell as they played some inferior opponents. I think we see a lot of points today and here is why. Boise State is number 4 in explosive plays and UNLV is number 84 in stopping them. Neither Defense ranks in the top 60 in EPA. Both offenses are top 20 in EPA. Many think that they both will be running the ball a lot, but I expect Boise to be winning which will cause Hajj Malik Williams to have to throw. This will be a fun one and my numbers say over now that it is this low.
Over 63.5 – 2 stars
