Coaching changes are HUGE when it comes to betting totals. It is good to get ahead of the market. There are not just personnel and scheme changes, but there are also pace changes that we all must be aware of in order to correctly handicap the total as well as the side. Some of the research involved is that we can find out the history of these coaches and how they run their respective phase of their previous teams. Were they coordinators that ran the same schemes? Were they assistants who might follow the same footsteps as their leaders? It is great to try and find an edge this way and I decided to put some work into is so that I could share my thoughts on attempting to predict the future tempos of the teams with new coaches for the 2024 season.
1. Kalen DeBoer, Alabama
Previous Job: Head Coach, Washington
Speed Change – Slow to medium fast: Alabama last year slowed it down ranking 113th in pace of play. I expect a big jump forward ranking in the high 30s due to Kalen Deboer’s offense.
Projection: 39th in tempo
2. Brent Brennan, Arizona
Previous Job: Head Coach, San Jose State
Speed Change – Medium to Slow: Brent Brennan’s team last year really slowed it down at San Jose State ranking 121st in tempo. I expect slow, but not quite that slow.
Projection: 95th in tempo
3. Spencer Danielson, Boise State
Previous Job: DC at Boise State
Speed Change – Slow to Slow: No change here as Danielson coached most of the year. They tend to slow it down when beating opponents by margin.
Projection: 90th in Tempo
4. Bill O’Brian, Boston College
Previous Job: OC at NFL New England Patriots, before that Alabama OC
Speed Change – Medium to Fast: Alabama was 12th in plays per game during the Mac Jones era. I expect a much faster tempo out of Boston College.
5. Pete Lembo, Buffalo
Previous Job: AHC at South Carolina
Speed Change – Medium to Medium – Long has it been since Pete’s coaching tenure at Ball State. He has bounced around some. Tempo may go up slightly.
Projection: 51st in Tempo
6. Manny Diaz, Duke
Previous Job: DC at Penn State
Speed Change – Medium to Medium: Manny Diaz is defensive minded. He was the coach of Miami for a bit.
Projection: 73rd in Tempo
7. Dell McGee, Georgia State
Previous Job: AHC at Georgia
Speed Change – Medium Fast to Medium Slow: Dell is from the Kirby tree and I do not see them rushing for anything.
Projection: 76th in tempo
8. Willi Fritz, Houston
Previous Job: Head Coach at Tulane
Speed Change – Medium to Slow: Willie Fritz isn’t rushing for anyone, they will rank in the 90s.
Projection: 92nd in Tempo
9. Curt Cignetti, Indiana
Previous Job: Head Coach at James Madison
Speed Change: Medium to Medium Slow: James Madison was darn good efficient, but they did not play all that fast. I still expect points scored for the Hoosiers.
Projection: 93rd in Tempo
10. Bob Chesney, James Madison
Previous Job: Head Coach, Holy Cross
11. Sherrone Moore, Michigan
Previous Job: DC at Michigan
Speed Change – Very Slow to Very Slow: Jim Harbaugh is gone, but his DC takes over. Why would he speed things up with a good running game and a good defense? He will do what worked last year
Projection: 125th in Tempo
Previous Job: Head Coach at Oregon State
Speed Change – Medium to Medium Slow: Jonathan Smith slowed down more and more over the years. He has a rushing game focus and knows how to get guys open.
Projection: 99th in Tempo
13. Derek Mason, Middle Tennessee State
Previous Job: DC at Oklahoma State, old coach at Vanderbilt
Speed Change – Fast to Medium Slow – MTSU should slow it down a lot going from Rick Stockstill to Derek Mason as coach. Defensive mind.
Projection: 94th in Tempo
Previous Job: OC at Oklahoma
Speed Change – Slow to Very Fast: Jeff Lebby’s offense ranked 9th in plays per game at Oklahoma. I expect a huge change of pace here going from 115th in plays per game.
Projection: 8th in Tempo
Previous Job: Defensive Coordinator, Mississippi State
Speed Change – Medium Slow to Medium Slow: Choate comes from the Long Horns. He was a defensive coordinator making it hard to get a real gauge on the new speed.
Projection: 71st in Tempo
16. Bronco Mendenhall, New Mexico
Previous Job: Head Coach at San Diego State
Speed Change – Medium Slow to Very Slow: Not many teams played slower than the Aztecs over the past five years or so. I expect more defensive approach from the Lobos.
Projection: 129th in Tempo
17. Tony Sanchez, New Mexico State
Previous Job: Wide Receivers coach at New Mexico State
Speed Change – Slow to Medium slow: Some continuity here after pretty much the rest of the team left for Vanderbilt. I think that this team keeps it slower, but not as slow as last year.
Projection: 88th in Tempo
Previous Job: DC at Oregon State
Speed Change – Medium Slow to Medium Slow: I expect the same type of offense here with the continuity after Jon Smith left.
Projection: 105th in Tempo
19. San Diego State, Sean Lewis
Previous Job: OC at Colorado, and Kent State head coach before that
Speed Change – Very Slow to Very Fast: Sean Lewis had an extremely fast offense at Kent State. He had the Buffs high flying as well before Deion Sanders had his mid season melt down. I expect ultra speed!
20. Ken Niumatalolo, San Jose State
Previous Job: TE coach at UCLA, but before that Navy for 15 years.
Speed Change – Very Slow to Very Slow: No change here, but I expect San Jose State to go run heavy. I don’t think that they will do the option, but they will have to find an identity and it will most likely start on the ground.
Projection – 119th in Tempo
21. Major Applewhite, South Alabama
Previous Job: OC at South Alabama
Speed Change – Medium Fast to Medium Fast: No big changes as Major Applewhite was offensive coordinator here last year
Projection: 36h in Tempo
22. Fran Brown, Syracuse
Previous Job: Defensive Backs Coach at Georgia
Speed Change – Medium Slow to Medium Slow: I do not expect a fast pace from a defensive coach.
Projection: 85th in Tempo
Previous Job: Head Coach at Duke
Speed Change – Slow to Medium: Duke’s pace was close to average last year and I think that Texas A&M will also be around that.
Projection: 71st in Tempo
24. Gerard Parker, Troy
Previous Job: OC at Notre Dame
Speed Change – Medium to Slow: Parker did not run a fast offense in Notre Dame rankings 119th in plays per game. I expect Troy to slow downs some.
Projection: 113th in Tempo
25. Jon Sumrall, Tulane
Previous Job: Head Coach at Troy
Speed Change – Slow to Medium: I expect Tulane to pick up the pace some, especially if they are trailing in the AAC. Troy’s pace was ranked last year in the high 50s. ‘
Projection: 58th in Tempo
26. DeShaun Foster, UCLA
Previous Job: Running Backs Coach at UCLA
Speed Change -Very Fast to Medium Fast: There is continuity here, but I also think that Foster will focus on the defense some. I can’t imagine this being run exactly like Chip Kelly did it.
Projection: 29th in Tempo
27. Bryant Vincent, Louisiana Monroe
Previous Job: OC at New Mexico, but before that UAB
Speed Change – Medium Fast to Slow: This should be a pretty drastic change as Bryant Vincent runs a slow offense. He ranked in the 100s at UAB and last year at New Mexico
Projection: 105th in Tempo
28. Scotty Walden, UTEP
Previous Job: Head Coach at Austin Peay
Speed Change – Slow to Medium Fast: I expect a good deal faster over at UTEP this year, but harder to predict being that last year, Walden coached a good Austin Peay FCS team.
Projection: 38th in Tempo
29. Jedd Fisch, Washington
Previous Job: Head Coach at Arizona
Speed Change – Medium to Medium Fast: Washington actually was a fast team, but they slowed it down just due to blowing teams out. I think Fisch goes a little faster this year
Projection: 45th in Tempo
30. Wyoming, Jay Sawvel
Previous Job: Defensive Coordinator at Wyoming
Speed Change – Slow to Slow: More continuity at Wyoming as I do not think a lot changes here.
Projection: 115th in Tempo
31. Fresno State, Tim Skipper
Previous Job: Assistant Head Coach at Fresno State
Speed Change – Medium Fast to Medium Fast: Hope Jeff Tedford improves his health as interim Tim Skipper steps in from being the assistant. No changes.
Projection: 21st in Tempo
OTHER NOTABLE CHANGES:
Baylor – Jake Spavital will bring in the Air Raid at OC and I project the tempo at 16th from 55th
Pittsburgh’s new OC Kade Bell averaged 37.5 points per game at Western Carolina. I project the tempo at 40th from 67th.
East Carolina new OC John David Baker from from Ole Miss. I project the Tempo ranking 8th from 50th last year.
Stanford coach Troy Taylor will speed it up even more this year. I expect tempo to around 25th from 57th last year.
I expect Arkansas to speed it up some with new OC Bobby Petrino. I expect Tempo ranking in the 50s from 83rd last year.
