College Football National Championship Play – Sports Betting

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We finish bowl seaon 24-12-1 up 31U!

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TCU vs Georgia -13 O/U 63.5

This will be the finish to the season that really none of us has been waiting for.  In saying that, Georgia didn’t show much of a pass rush Vs Ohio State and that worries me some.  Max Duggan is fantastic on his feat and that is the way that TCU will have to move the ball.  Call me crazy, but I might even give Duggen the quarterback edge in this game.  Strength of schedule favors TCU 21 to Georgia’s 34 on Sagarin but you can’t discount an SEC schedule.  Georgia has a .82 YPP advantage mainly due to TCU’s mediocre defense.  The big weakness for TCU is against the run.  They allow 4.2 yards per attempt with a success rate on defense only ranking 72nd.   The Frogs defensive line in the trenches are a bit undersized which could hinder them here against a massive Georgia offensive front.  The Bulldogs rank 7th in rushing success rate and 7th at yards per rush so they should be able to control the clock if they can get a good start in the game.  In saying all of that, I think that TCU can hang here.  The scary thing for Georgia is that they rank only 108th in explosiveness on offense while TCU ranks 5th on offense to Georgia ranking 32nd on defense allowing explosive plays.  This tells me that TCU has back door ability here if the going gets rough.  It is scary because if TCU somehow jumps Georgia, it could put the Bulldogs in a tough situation having to rely on a passing game to mediocre wide receivers minus Brock Bowers.  My power ratings have it at Georgia -11, but I think that TCU hangs and only loses by 9, but take a Georgia rushing props to be safe.   I believe that all three outcomes can happen.   Remember, it’s not the size of the dog in the fight, its about the size of fight in the frog.  Best of luck everyone!

TCU +13.5 – 2 stars 

Props:  Edwards over 49.5 rushing yards – 1 star
Kenny McIntosh over 65.5 rushing yards – 1 star

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Kiev O'Neil: 20+ years of sports betting experience. Podcast host since 2017. College Football since 2019 412-367-27 UP 58.7U NFL since 2018 249-228-16 up 40U UFC since 2019 82-74-5 up 34.1U I do not necessarily look at myself as being a so called “sharp” sports bettor. Instead I like to think of myself as a great compiler of information who specializes in the Big 10, but also handicaps all NFL, NCAA football, UFC, Basketball, Horse Racing and more! I encourage people to specialize in a conference or division that will help give them the greatest edge in their sports wagers. I am never against a person betting against their favorite teams when the situation is right.