A huge thanks to Stuckey from The Action Network for providing data on transfers, opt-outs, and injuries.
PLAYOFFS (part 2)
Tuesday, Dec. 31
CFP Quarterfinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
Penn State vs. Boise State +11 O/U 54
Location: State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
Time: 7:30 p.m.
TV Network: ESPN
All Motivated.
Home: None
Key Guys Missing:
Penn State:
- OL Anthony Donkoh may miss with injury
- DT Alonzo Ford may miss with injury
Boise State:
- None
Coach Bowl ATS:
- Boise State: Spencer Danielson, 0-1
- Penn State: James Franklin, 8-5
Net YPP: Penn State +.92
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Penn State not only shows better than Boise State in all of the advanced metrics, they also had a harder strength of schedule ranking 44th to Boise’s 85th. Boise State’s defense is pretty suspect when playing better teams, although they have improved throughout the season.
Verdict: James Franklin is great when he is a favorite of more than 7. Strong lean to Penn State at this number, but I won’t get involved as my power ratings are right on.
Play: Lean Penn State -11
Wednesday, Jan. 1
CFP Quarterfinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Texas vs. Arizona State +13 O/U 52
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Time: 1 p.m.
TV Network: ESPN
All Motivated.
Home: Texas will get two points in SEC/ACC Country
Key Guys Missing:
Arizona State:
- Top WR Jordyn Tyson with a collar bone fracture
Texas:
- WR Isaiah Bond is questionable with an ankle sprain.
- OL Kelvin Banks is questionable with an ankle sprain.
Bowl Coach ATS:
- Texas: Steve Sarkisian, 3-4
- Arizona State: Kenny Dillingham, 0-0
Net YPP: Texas +1
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Arizona State’s weakness is definitely on defense where they rank 69th in success rate and 56 in opponent pass EPA. Texas really doesn’t have a weakness minus their inconsistency in many games. Texas’s offensive line yards only ranks 77th which doesn’t feel like championship caliber.
Verdict: Believe it or not, the strength of schedule doesn’t rank much differently on Sagarin with Texas at 20th and ASU at 39th. The big injury to number 1 wide receiver Jordyn Tyson of the Sun Devils could play a factor here. However, I also said that in their Iowa State game where ASU blew them out. I think that ASU could score first here and I think a prop could make sense as Dillingham is such a great coach, especially in the first half. Texas in theory should be able to stop Cam Skattebo on the ground, but they do have a weakness only ranking 52nd in defensive success rate. My number on this game is Texas -12.25, but I will wait and play either the side on ASU or the total. With Quinn Ewers inconsistency, I think the Devils could shock the Long horns here.
Play: 1st half over 26.5 looks good for a small play as I think both teams score. I will also wait and play ASU +14 or better or ASU 1st half +7 or better.
CFP Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game Presented by Prudential
Ohio State vs. No. 1 Oregon +2.5 O/U 55.5
Location: Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
Time: 5 p.m.
TV Network: ESPN
All Motivated.
Home: None
Key Guys Missing:
Ohio State:
- C Seth McLaughlin is out
- OT Josh Simmons is out.
Oregon:
- OL Matthew Bedford
Coach Bowl ATS:
- Oregon: Dan Lanning, 1-1
- Ohio State: Ryan Day, 3-4
Net YPP: Ohio State +1.08
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Ohio State should be able to run the ball against Oregon ranking 8th in rush EPA to Oregon ranking 88th, but we also have to keep in mind that most of these stats were accumulated before center Seth McLaughlin was injured. Oregon plays a bend don’t break defense that tightens up in the red zone, so I won’t punish them for that. Everything else on these teams are pretty equal.
Verdict: The first game was really a coin flip game in Oregon. I think this Rose Bowl feels the same way. I have these teams equally power rated. Maybe Ohio State gets the edge at running the football, but Oregon ain’t no slouch on defense ranking 25th in opponent EPA and success rate. I would take a 3 on either side if one pops. Where Oregon I think has the edge is that Danny Lanning has proven to be the more trustworthy coach. I also think the quarterback edge goes to Dillon Gabriel. I have no play right now, but might do something personal on Oregon.
Play: Lean Oregon and lean the live over. I also might look at a 1st half under as both teams will be quite careful with the ball.
CFP Quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Notre Dame vs. Georgia -2 O/U 44
Location: Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
Time: 8:45 p.m.
TV Network: ESPN
All Motivated.
Home: Slight for Georgia at -.5 vs Notre Dame
Key Guys Missing:
Georgia:
- QB Carson Beck
- DL Christian Miller is questionable
- DL Joseph Jonay-Ajonye is out since Oct 31st
Notre Dame:
- Team Captain DT Rylie Mills out for the season.
Coach Bowl ATS:
- Georgia: Kirby Smart, 9-3
- Notre Dame: Marcus Freeman, 2-0
Net YPP: Notre Dame +1.12
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: There is nothing more key than Georgia losing QB Carson Beck to injury. Even in saying that, I do not know how Georgia is favored here as Notre Dame beats them in all the main categories. They rank 8th in offensive EPA, to Georgia ranking 28th. The Irish rank 2nd in defensive EPA to Georgia ranking 35th.
Verdict: The injury to captain Rylie Mills is rough for the Irish, but it doesn’t compare to Georgia losing Carson Beck. The Irish also have a lot of depth on their team. Everyone in the SEC feels confident about backup Gunner Stockton, but let’s be real here. The stage get’s much bigger come game-time, and I believe that he will make more mistakes than he even thinks he will at this time. Coach Marcus Freemen and Defensive coordinator Al Golden will attack Georgia’s quarterback with many different blitz packages and looks. Irish quarterback Riley Leonard has been very poised over the past few months. He isn’t making bad mistakes and that will be huge here. I think the Irish win this game and It could be a blowout.
Notre Dame +2 – 3 stars
Thursday, Jan. 2
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl: Duke vs. Ole Miss -17 O/U 51.5
Location: EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
Time: 7:30 p.m.
TV Network: ESPN
Duke’s Motivation: Medium – They get to play an SEC team, but they lost their quarterbacks to transfer.
Ole Miss’s Motivation: Medium – Not a rewarding bowl for a team that should have made the playoffs, but Lane Kiffen might want to make a statement here for being snubbed in the playoffs.
Home: None
Key Guys Missing:
Ole Miss Transfer Portal
- Starting CB Jadon Canady
- Starting RT Micah Pettus (committed to FSU)
- S Louis Moore (297 snaps)
- Third-string QB Walker Howard (committed to Louisiana)
- RT Preston Cushman *(64 snaps)
Ole Miss Opt-Outs
- LB Chris Paul Jr.
Ole Miss Potential Opt-Outs
- WR Juice Wells
- WR Tre Harris (also dealing with injury)
- DE Princely Umanmielen (plans to play)
- DE Jared Ivey (plans to play)
- DT Walter Nolen (plans to play)
CB Trey Amos confirmed he’ll play, as did QB Jaxson Dart.
Ole Miss Injuries
S Yam Banks and S Louis Moore didn’t play in the finale. RB Henry Parrish and WR Tre Harris finished the year injured.
Duke Transfer Portal
- Starting RB Star Thomas
- Backup QB Grayson Loftis
Duke Opt-Outs
- Starting QB Maalik Murphy (committed to Auburn)
- Henry Belin IV will start.
Duke Potential Opt-Outs
- WR Jordan Moore
- CB Chandler Rivers
Duke head coach Manny Diaz said he doesn’t expect any opt-outs.
Duke Injuries
Starting CB Kimari Robinson and RB Peyton Jones didn’t play in the finale.
Bowl Coach ATS:
- Duke: Manny Diaz, 0-2
- Ole Miss: Lane Kiffin, 3-4
Net YPP: Ole Miss +2.21
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: There is nothing more Key than Duke playing without a known quarterback. Ole Miss is the best team that didn’t make the playoffs statwise ranking 5th in offensive EPA and 8th in defensive EPA. Maybe this spread should be 30.
Verdict: I have no clue how good Duke backup Henry Berlin IV is, but I will say that if he is any good, then maybe he can keep Duke in this game. Ole Miss is also an inconsistent team away from home. In saying that, I might play Ole Miss as I think that this line gets to 20.
Play: Lean Ole Miss -17
References:
