A nice weekend in college football at 6-2 in Week 3, as we bounced back from 3-5 in Week 2. Now at 19-16 overall on the season. Hoping to continue the momentum into Week 4. Also hoping to change it up here on the Free Picks as those are currently 0-3. Anyhoo…. Let’s go!
This week’s Free Play travels to one of my focus conferences in the Pac 12. (3-1 Pac-12 plays) It’s not my normal Late Night KNAction, although I do have some of those lined up for Saturday as well. (Get All my Plays available right here @theoddsbreakers.com) We look at at an unusual starting time of 2PM Eastern in Boulder, Colorado where the Buffaloes will take on the UCLA Bruins. Current Lines: UCLA -21.5 Over/Under 57
UCLA comes in at 3-0 having survived last week against South Alabama on a last second field goal. This comes after pummeling Bowling Green and Alabama State to open the season. Colorado on the other hand is 0-3 and has lost by an average 32.7 PPG in contests with Minnesota, Air Force and TCU. Clearly Colorado has faced the tougher competition thus far, but results have not been solid.
The key to UCLA’s offense is quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson who is completing a hefty 72.6% of his passes so far for 6 scores and only 1 INT. He can also run when needed adding 114 yards and 2 scores on the ground. Zach Charbonnet leads their ground game averaging 5.6 YPC. The receiving core is green, but has shown flashes led by Jake Bobo and Kazmeir Allen. On the down side they have turned it over 6 times this season already.
Colorado’s offense hasn’t really materialized up to this point in the season having only scored 30 points through 3 contests. J.T. Shrout and Brendon Lewis have split time under center, even third stringer Owen McCown got some action against Minnesota in the blowout as the Buffs looked to find some sort of spark. Combined in 3 games they are 41/86 for 377 yards 2 TDs and 1 INT. That’s not gonna cut it. Deion Smith is their leading rusher averaging 5.7 YPC and he will need to be effective in this one to keep the UCLA offense off the field. Only one Colorado pass catcher has more than 3 receptions and that’s Daniel Arias who is their only real threat outside.
On defense UCLA ranks 23rd in the country allowing 4.38 Yards per play, with most of the damage coming in their last contest. The rushing defense has been especially strong allowing just under 100 yards per game.
Colorado ranks dead last in stopping the run 131st in the country allowing 362 yards per game. Air Force and Minnesota will do that to you however when you can’t stop it. They are allowing 6.78 Yards per play good (or bad I guess) for 125th in the country.
So obviously up to this point we have seen that Colorado cannot put anything together on either side if the ball. UCLA will, like the Buffs other three opponents, run the ball at will. The Bruins offense is 13th in Line Yards with the Buffs D at 129th. Chip Kelly will be drawing up all the run scheme magic and I think you will see DTR run wild. In last years contest the Bruins ran for 244 yards in a 44-20 win. I expect them to get ahead early here and make the Buffs try and play catch-up. I’m not worried about the Buffs throwing their way to a backdoor cover here because even if the Bruins start to salt the game away solely running the football Colorado can’t stop it and their QB play isn’t strong enough to hang multiple scores late. I thought about the first half play, but only Minnesota covered that against the Buffs and I think their D will wear down late like it did against TCU and Air Force.
Gimme UCLA -21.5, 2 Units.
