After starting the college football season 6-1 we have stumbled in weeks 2 and 3 and now sit at 8-11 on the season. Time to bounce back to the winning side this week. We’ve got a free play for you for Saturdays action!
This week’s Free Play travels to Lynchburg Virginia to see the Liberty Flames (3-0) host the E.Carolina Pirates (2-1) We look at at an unusual starting time of 6PM Eastern. Current Lines: Liberty -7.5 Over/Under 54.5
Liberty head coach Jamey Chadwell and current East Carolina head coach Mike Houston have met a four times previously. Chadwell’s Charleston Southern Buccaneers topped Houston’s The Citadel Bulldogs three times head-to-head in 2014 and 2015. That included a 14-6 CSU win over The Citadel in the 2015 FCS Playoffs. They also met when each were head coaches at Division II stops in 2011.
The ECU Pirates dominated Norfolk St. to open the season winning 42-3 while putting up 506 yards of total offense and allowing just 114. They did turn the ball over in that game six times as well. They followed that up with a 20-14 win over Old Dominion where they dominated again on the stat sheet winning total yards 466-287, but struggled with turnovers again giving it away four times. Finally last week they fell 21-19 to Appalachian St. where they put up 505 yards of offense and only allowed 324, but turned it over three times and allowed 21 unanswered points mid game to fall 21-19.
They are led at QB by former four star recruit Jake Garcia who arrived on campus via Miami and Missouri. He has been the primary source of the Pirates turnover woes throwing 8 picks already on the season. Rahjai Harris leads the backfield with 50 carries for 242 yards and a pair of scores.
The defense is the best unit for ECU as they are holding opponents to 1.8YPC and all three opponents have failed to rush for 100 yards this season. They also are holding opponents to only 25% on third down conversions.
Liberty was one of the top picks to make the playoffs from the non-power conferences to start the season. While undefeated they haven’t quite shown that they are the best non-power team up to this point. They started with a dominating win against Campbell where they put up 533 yards of offense and allowed 310 in a 41-24 victory. They needed a 21 point 4th quarter to beat New Mexico State 30-24 where they were killed by 1/11 third down efficiency despite out-gaining them 473-275. They beat UTEP last week 28-10 in a turnover filled game last week with a 415-335 yard edge.
Star quarterback Kaidon Salter leads the Liberty triple option attack. They are currently 25th in the country in rushing yards per game at 223 after leading college football last year at 293. During 2023 in the passing game he threw 32 touchdowns and six interceptions on a stellar 9.9 yards per attempt. This year, he has three scores on 10.2 yards per attempt, with a career-high completion rate. Salter regularly posted triple-digits in the rushing department in 2023, producing over 1,000 yards rushing on 6.7YPC. So far, he hasn’t broken more than 48 yards in a game, totaling 95 on a 3.4 average.
The Flames defense turned opponents over a bunch in 2023 especially opposing passers with 21 total interceptions. This season they have only forced 4 turnovers in three games. They’ve done a nice job limiting opponents to just 104 yards per game on the ground, but have been suspect on big pass plays as they allowed a 60+ yards touchdown to both NMSU and UTEP.
The analysis:
Liberty has yet to cover a game this year and is 1-3 in their last four games as a home favorite. ECU is 3-1 in their last four games as a road dog and 6-3 in their last nine.
It’s early in the season, but both App. St. and ODU are in the bottom half of teams in rushing YPA. The Pirates won’t have it so easy against the rushing attack of Liberty. While it has underperformed up to this point the Flames will get that ground attack going in this one even though it will be strength against strength with the ECU defense.
ECU has had awful offensive efficiency especially in the red zone where they have had ten trips so far and have only come away with five scores, three of which were touchdowns. They should get that straightened out a little bit as long as Garcia takes a little bit better care of the ball. The Pirates are also playing extremely fast rattling off the second most plays per game in the nation and holding the #1 Tempo rating.
East Carolina’s offense can move the ball on Liberty, and should come away with plenty of big chunk plays. The Flames should continue to get better in the running attack and with the ECU tempo and both teams possessing chunk play ability I have this game pegged at 35-28 Liberty. More than enough for me to put a play in on the Over.
Over 54.5 2 Units
