We’re 24-21-1 in College Football this season. Still down a few units. Hoping this is the week we break back into the positive.
This week’s Free Play travels to Pittsburgh, PA to see the Pitt Panthers (5-0) host the California Bears (3-2) kicking off at 3:30 ET Current Lines: Pitt -3.5 Over/Under 58.5
Cal comes into this game after a heartbreaking home loss to Miami 39-38 where they blew a 20 point 4th quarter lead in a game where they hosted College Gameday for the first time. It was their second straight loss after dropping a defensive affair to Florida State on the road. Prior to that they defeated UC Davis and SDSU at home and defeated Auburn on the road.
Pitt defeated North Carolina last game on the road and also boasts a road victory over Cincinnati and home wins against Kent State, West Virginia and Youngstown State.
The Golden Bears are looking for their first win over a ranked opponent since beating #21 Oregon in 2020. Their offense has left some things to be desired. Currently managing 5.6 yards per play putting them in the middle of the D1 Pack. They are led by QB Fernando Mendoza who is completing 64.8% of his passes with 7 Touchdowns and 3 Interceptions. He’s averaging 8.1 Yards per attempt. The receiving core has seen a few injuries and doesn’t feature any real stars. They have nine players with at least eight receptions, but no one man has topped 15 catches yet on the season. Javian Thomas has led them on the ground with 6.4 YPC on 45 attempts. Pre-season All-American candidate RB Jadyn Ott has struggled to stay on the field with a bothersome ankle injury.
The Pitt offense on the other hand has seen high levels of success. They are 9th in yards per game in D1, and 7th overall in passing averaging over 337 yards per game through the air. Redshirt Freshman and Alabama transfer QB Eli Holstein has emerged completing 65.7 percent of his passes for 15 Touchdowns to only 3 Interceptions. He is at 9.1 Yards per attempt. Pitt has six different receivers with at least 14 catches and Holstein has done a great job of spreading the ball around the field and pushing it down past the markers as well. Running back Desmond Reid leads the backfield with 62 carries averaging 6.0 YPC.
The Cal defense has been the strength of their team so far holding opponents to 18.0 points allowed and 355 yards per game. They lead the nation in interceptions with 11 and they will need to be at their best to slow down this Pitt offense,
Pittsburgh has allowed 360 yards per game, and has yet to hold a D1 Opponent under 24 points per game. Cal isn’t as complete an offense as any of Pitts other opponents with the exception of Kent State.
The Analysis:
I think the Cal secondary is the strength of this team, and while they gave up some big plays to Miami in the 4th quarter last week they have been fairly well disciplined and well coached bu Justin Wilcox. They should present the biggest challenge so far for Holstein and offensive coordinator Kade Bell. While I don’t think they will slow them down completely I believe Wilcox will have plenty of surprises for Pitt much like he did early against Miami.
Pitts defense has excelled in getting opponents in difficult situations. They have turned that early down success into third down defensive efficiency with the 13th best D1 third down conversion percentage allowed at 29.5%. Cal’s offense hasn’t shown the ability to move the ball effectively in long drives. Against Miami two of their scores were on long pass plays and another on a Pick 6. Take away the two pass defense breakdowns and they wouldn’t have cracked 300 yards against Miami.
I expect Pitts offense to struggle more than usual and Cal to continue finding difficulty sustaining drives against this Pat Narduzzi defense. With the total sitting at 58.5 I am placing a bet on the under and believe it will be a lower scoring affair in Pittsburgh.
Under 58.5 1.5 Units. Lean Pitt -3.5.
