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Oregon vs Utah +6.5 O/U 48
This should be a wonderful game that could really set the tone in the Pac 12. Utah is coming off of a big win at USC while Oregon is coming off of a win but no cover against a meddling Washington State team. This handicap is interesting because now we know Cam Rising will not come back this year and it’s up to QBs Bryson Barns and Nate Johnson to keep on trucking. Now the matchup to watch is Oregon’s number 2 passing offense vs Utah’s number 2 passing defense in success rate. Can Utah slow this Duck’s offense down? Does a bear crap in the woods? Yes, I think both. Oregon’s crutch if they have any is ranking 56 in opponent rushing success rate. I can see Utah draining clock and moving the ball on the ground. Most Public Power ratings have Oregon by 7 points or so, but it is missing one key to this handicap, and that is Bo Nix and Danny Lanning on the road. Oregon has a massive 3.0 net yards per play, but that number goes down to 1.6 on the road. Utah has a zero in net yards per play, but it goes up to .6 at home. Utah’s schedule has been MUCH harder as they have played Florida, UCLA, Oregon State and USC while Oregon has only played at Washington while we found out that Washington State was fake news. Since 2012, Utah is 42-28-1 ATS at home at 60%. Don’t be scared this Halloween and take the Ute’s at home.
Utah +6.5 – 2.5 stars
Arkansas State vs ULM -2 O/U 56.5
I like the Louisiana Monroe Here. They have a small net yards per play advantage over Arkansas State of .25. Neither offense is all that good, but the key here for me is that ULM has had the rougher schedule in my opinion opening up with App State whom they lost to by 1 point, South Alabama who is close to the top of this conference, and some hard fought games at Texas State losing by one and at Georgia Southern. Arkansas State’s hardest conference game was against Troy losing by over 30. Monroe’s defense is better against the run and the pass while their offense is much better at running the ball at 4.7 yards per rush to 4.1 respectively. Lastly the coach, I like Terry Bowden a heck of a lot more than Butch Jones. ULM needs this conference win. My power ratings have the Warhawks by 6.25. I’ll take the -2.5
ULM -2 – 3 stars
