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Michigan vs Penn State +4.5 O/U 44.5
This is the best game of the weekend. The total is right where it belongs and I have been eyeing this spot up for a while. Penn State has been called a bully. That certainly is true, but does that mean that Michigan isn’t a bully? I think not. Michigan has feasted on the easiest schedule in the Big 10. This has helped them pad their stats as well as bolster their rankings. Penn State’s schedule has been easy as well, but they had at least played West Virginia and Ohio State. Now I will say that I do have Michigan as the best and most complete team in college football, but does that mean that Penn State is over six points worse? I think not. Penn State is a top 10 team, and they rank number 1 in defense right ahead of Michigan at number two. Michigan has an offensive yards per play advantage over Penn State at 6.8 to 5.2, but how much of that is baked into the fact that they didn’t play Ohio State? I think a decent amount. Michigan ranks 132nd in Tempo. Does that give anyone confidence that they can cover at Penn State by margin? Not really. Michigan’s offensive line will struggle against Penn State’s defense. They won’t be able to pass as efficiently as they have now facing the number one defense in opponent passing success rate. Lastly, the Wolverines are full of distractions with spy-gate 2.0. I think that could only hurt this team. I see a three point game but I also think that Penn State can win it. Take the Points and sprinkle the ML.
Penn State +4.5 – 2.5 stars and sprinkle ML
Appalachian State vs Georgia State -2 O/U 60.5
I think that there is a good reason why App State isn’t a favorite here. They just are not as good as they have been in the past. Losing at Old Dominion and only beating Monroe by 1 point is very telling. The other telling thing is that Georgia State is a competitive team this year in the Sun Belt. They aren’t great at anything but they aren’t terrible at anything either minus the pass. That is a red flag. Georgia State ranks 117th in defensive success rate against the pass while App state ranks 15 in passing play success rate. I think they score some points. Now Appalachian state thrives on passing the ball which you may think gives them an advantage, but on the other side of things, App State’s run game is terrible on both sides of the ball. The Mountaineers rank 90th in offensive rushing success rate and a horrible 113th on defense. They give up 5.5 rushing yards per attempt. The Panthers however rank 33rd in yards per rush at 4.84 with big thanks to their QB Darren Grainger who loves to get chunk yards with his legs. I see both teams scoring a lot of points against each others weaknesses. Take the over. Both teams rank in the top 26 in offensive explosiveness. They also both rank 105th or worse in defensive explosiveness. I see a ton of points here.
Over 60.5 – 2 stars
