This is clearly the best game on the docket maybe of the year. Both of these teams will be treating this like a playoff game, and at the end of the day, this might be a playoff game. About a month ago, I have had Michigan about 2-3 points better than Ohio State on the power ratings, but now it has certainly adjusted to much closer due to the growth of Kyle McCord. Kyle McCord ranks 12th in QBR, while Michigan’s JJ McCarthy ranks 3rd. When looking at the some of the Advanced stats, Michigan ranks a little higher than Ohio State in offensive success rate at 8th to Ohio State’s 21st and Defensive success rate at 4th to Ohio State’s 11th, but the biggest factor there I believe is the strength of schedule. Michigan has played a pure cake schedule while Ohio State has had two rough extra games at Notre Dame and at Wisconsin. Ohio State has a slight edge in yards per play, but that also could be because Michigan has taken their foot off of the gas over the last few weeks. I truley believe that Michigan’s only big advantage (besides home field here) is the fact that their quarterback is a little better. The X factor here for me is coaching. There will be no Jim Harbaugh at this game and he is worth something to the spread when facing top teams. I like Ohio State to cover the hook here.
Ohio State +3.5 – 2.5 stars
Indiana vs Purdue -5 O/U 54
This game may not be pleasant on the eyes, but there is value in the total. neither averages over 23 points per game this season. Purdue struggles to move the ball at 5.3 yards per play while Indiana is worse at 4.95. The weather today will be a cold one with a high of about 38 degrees. I can see a lot of ways that this game goes under. Both defenses have been trending better here at the end of the season. Tom Allen as a coach isn’t the sharpest tool in the shed, but he does get his kids up for big games. I think that this might be a snoozer today in Big 10 country.
Under 54 – 2 stars
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