Cincinnati vs Texas Tech -2.5 O/U 59.5
This should be a competitive game. I have to give Cincinnati some credit here at 3-1. They have shown to have good defense and they seem to take care of the ball on offense. In saying that, I still am somewhat low on this team. Beating Miami Ohio, Houston and Towson isn’t exactly reason to think that they are good. Cincinnati allowed over 6 yards per play so far against the bad teams in the league. Texas Tech also allows over 6 yards per play on defense, but at least they had played two decent power teams in Washington State, and last week against ASU. Quarterback Behren Morton is a solid 63% completion with 12 touchdowns and only two interceptions. I have him rated higher than Brendan Sorsby. Texas Tech ranks 26th in explosive plays. This is where I think that they can get Cincinnati at home being that they really haven’t been tested on defense. This is a short spread so I will lay the points.
Texas Tech -2.5 – 2 stars
Louisville vs Notre Dame -6 O/U 48.5
This is going to be one of the best games of the weekend, but I do not understand how this spread got so high. Notre Dame has shown weakness this year in clutch situations as we have seen vs Northern Illinois. Now that they have been brought back to earth, let’s look at these numbers. Louisville ranks 11th in offensive success rate, while Notre Dame ranks 74th. Louisville ranks 16th in defensive success rate, while Notre Dame ranks 26th. It is clear that the Irish have had a harder schedule than the Cardinals, but the Cardinals showed me last week against a great rushing team in Georgia Tech that they can do what they have to do against Notre Dame to slow down their run game. I think that this is a much closer game than the spread indicates at 6. Both of these coaches are familiar with each other as they just played last year, where the Cardinals won by 13 points. Louisville is 4-0 against the spread over their last four games vs the Irish. Take Louisville
Louisville +6 – 2 stars
