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FIU vs Indiana -21.5 O/U 51.5
One of these teams used to look just like the other. Which one is different for 2024? Look, with how the transfer portal has changed things, teams can go from good to bad and bad to good pretty darn quick. I wish I could say it’s the good side for FIU. Don’t get me wrong, they weren’t the worst team in the league, but averaging -.95 yards per play on a schedule where their toughest game was against Liberty and maybe Arkansas. Indiana was trash last year at -1.8 yards per play, but at least they played a big 10 schedule. The big difference for 2024 is that Indiana became James Madison. Coach Curt Cignetti comes in averaging +.9 yards per play and was probably the best team in the Sun belt the last two years until Injury. Veteran quarterback Curtis Roark transfers in from Ohio with a ton of winning experience along with 15 of James Madison’s best players. You actually have to assume this is a better version of James Madison from the last few seasons. FIU on the other hand returns Nazaviah Burris at quarterback, but he only ranked a rough 103rd in pass EPA last season. FIU didn’t get much from the transfer portal and actually lost some of their best players. I have Indiana about 23 points better to start the season over FIU and playing at home should be a little bonus. Take the Hoosiers to roll.
Indiana -21.5 – 2 stars
Notre Dame vs Texas A&M -3 O/U 46.5
This game is what college football is all about. Notre Dame come in with a pretty stacked team of studs whiling getting one of the best transfer quarterbacks in Riley Leonard from Duke. The Irish have to replace a good deal of offense, but the transfer portal did them well ranking 14th in the net rankings. This team was good over the past few years and last year they ranked a huge 2nd in EPA margin. Texas A&M finally got rid of Jimbo Fischer. He could recruit like a god, but his coaching did not evolve after his championship win at Auburn. New coach Mike Elko comes in also from Duke with a lot of work to do. Texas A&M had a very solid defense last year ranking 19th in EPA, but their offense did struggle. Quarterback Conner Weigman is back to try and showcase his talents, but the big issue is that this team lost a bunch of talent to the transfer portal only ranking 63rd in net ratings. My biggest thing for this game is that Coach Elko is facing his old quarterback in Riley Leonard. I always give the nod to the kid in this type of situation. What can be controlled on the field is what is going to win this game. A&M is susceptible against the pass ranking 27th in drop-back EPA on defense. Riley through for almost 3,000 yards back in 2022 before he got injured the next season at Duke. He also ran for 636 yards and 11 touchdowns. I am taking the points and the Irish here.
Notre Dame +3 – 2 stars
