Thursday, Jan. 9
CFP Semifinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl: Notre Dame vs Penn State +1.5 O/U 44.5
Location: Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Time: 7:30 p.m.
TV Network: ESPN
All Motivated.
Home: None
Key Guys Missing:
Notre Dame:
- RB Jeremiyah Love Injured last game and questionable.
- DT Team Captain Rylie Mills out for the season.
- TE Cooper Flanagan is out with a foot injury.
Penn State:
- DE Abdul Carter left last game with an arm injury and is questionable. 4th in total tackles.
- OL Anthony Donko out since November with injury
- DT Alonzo Ford has been out since late November with injury.
Post-season Coach ATS:
- Notre Dame: Marcus Freeman, 3-0
- Penn State: James Franklin, 8-5
Net YPP: Penn State +.1
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Notre Dame is the better rushing team ranking 2nd in rush EPA to 18th for Penn State while Penn State gets the nod on the passing ranking 8th in pass EPA to Notre Dame at 47th. Both schedules are not too far from each other. Notre Dame has the slightly better defense ranking 2nd in EPA to Penn State at 17th.
Verdict: This should be a tight game. I have Notre Dame by two points or so, but It wouldn’t shock me if the Nittany Lions get them. I do give a slight edge to some of the intangibles as I think that Notre Dame’s quarterback Riley Leonard might be a bit more big game ready than Drew Allar. I also think the Irish get the coaching edge as Big game James could always make a showing. I am somewhat concerned for the two day rest advantage for Penn State and the health of Jeremiyah Love. I want to make sure he is healthy before I decide to make a play.
Play: Lean Notre Dame -1.5
Friday, Jan. 10
CFP Semifinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic: Ohio State vs Texas +6 O/U 53.5
Time: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
Time: 7:30 p.m.
TV Network: ESPN
All Motivated.
Home. It’s in Texas so give them -1 in Arlington.
Key Guys Missing:
Ohio State:
- C Seth McLaughlin is out
- OT Josh Simmons is out.
Texas:
- OL Kelvin Banks is questionable with an ankle sprain and missed last game.
- WR Isaiah Bond missed last game and is questionable.
Bowl Coach ATS:
- Texas: Steve Sarkisian, 3-5
- Ohio State: Ryan Day, 4-4
Net YPP: Ohio State +.9
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Ohio State has the better offense ranking number 2 in offensive EPA to 37th for Texas. They also have the better defense ranking 1st in defensive EPA to Texas at number 3.
Verdict: There isn’t much more to say than the fact that Ohio State is better than Texas in pretty much every key area. I will say that Texas could slow this game down to try and give them an advantage, but how long will that last. Texas has been the more inconsistent team in general as they almost blew their game against ASU among their two losses to Georgia. Texas also doesn’t have many big wins. Ohio State is red hot. I think they win this game and I also will take the under as a safety net.
Play: Ohio State -6 and under 53.5
