Florida Atlantic vs Oklahoma -21
Well Lane Kiffen sure proved 1 thing last year. That is that he can seriously turn around a program and coach some college football! I knew I saw good in this team when they played my Badgers pretty close throughout most of the game last year. Averaging 40 points and 6.8 Yards per play while opponents averaged 22 points and 5.2 Yards per play, Florida Atlantic was the class of Conference USA. Now lets not kid ourselves here. They are playing a top 10 Power 5 school in Oklahoma and that is usually something that would shy you away from making this bet BUT, Florida Atlantic returns a whopping 90% production in their defense. Florida Atlantic has to find a new QB but they have some options and return much of a great offense. Baker Mayfield is gone making Oklahoma in a similar position and will be starting over with QB Kyler Murray a Texas A&M transfer that also was a top 10 draft pick in baseball whatever that means to this season. The offensive kicker here is that Florida Atlantic received QB Chris Robinson from OKLAHOMA and just maybe his knowledge of the Oklahoma offense will really help the Owls here. The real question is how good will Oklahoma be on defense? Oklahoma ranked 67 last year in total Defense giving up 5.8 yards per play this years team lost 48% of their production… The real deciding factor to bank on here is the huge hangover Oklahoma has from losing that heartbreaking game at Georgia and I am a believe that it will affect this game. FAU +21 and sprinkle the money line
UNC vs Cal – Cal -6.5 might be 7.5 now
So I know this is a revenge game for North Carolina being beaten at home by Cal the first game of the year 35-30, but that won’t be enough against Justin Wilcox and this team that was 8-4 ATS last year. Both teams were pretty identical last year in yards per play both on Defense and in Offense but Cal had the harder schedule. Not only does North Carolina have a huge travel spot going across the country to play this game, they also are only returning 1 Starter on offensive line. That is bad news for them Vs Justin Wilcox blitz happy defensive schemes. It also looks like starting QB Chazz Surratt will be suspended the first four games along with their top D-Ends Malik Carney and Tomon Fox. NOT GOOD. Cal ranks 19th in returning production with 10 players on the offense itself. I have Cal power rated about 6 points over UNC. Cal by 12. Cal – 6.5 1U
Northwestern vs Purdue -3.5
I have Purdon’t as a Purdooooo type team this year. Both teams 9-4 ATS last year. Second year under Jeff Brohm returning 77% of their offensive production to Northwestern’s 67%. A glaring fact and look into this number is that it counts NU QB Clayton Thorson is returning from a Late December torn ACL injury but I can’t imagine him being ready week 1. Northwestern also lost their top running back Justin Jackson to the draft. Both teams return most of their O line and the Cats edge out Purdue in returning defense at 61% to Purdue’s 41%. Because of the Thorson injury, I am not as concerned for Purdue’s lack of defense here. I like Purdue by 6 points with Thorson and 8 without. Purdue – 3.5 2U
NM State vs Minnestota -17.5 Thursday Game
Minnesota head coach P.J. Fleck announced his team’s starting quarterback on Monday and has selected true freshman Zack Annexstad. The IMG Academy product edged out red-shirt freshman Tanner Morgan for the role. Now this gopher team is still in rebuild on second year but returns over 2/3 of their production. Rodney Smith returns and Running back and Thomas Barber on Linebacker will be playing on sundays in the NFL. On the other hand New Mexico State got blown out at home on national tv against Wyoming and has a very short week to prepare for this game.. The Aggies averaged -.5 rushing yards per play and only 144 yards passing. They might be the worst team in FBS.
Florida Atlantic vs Oklahoma -21
Well Lane Kiffen sure proved 1 thing last year. That is that he can seriously turn around a program and coach some college football! I knew I saw good in this team when they played my Badgers pretty close throughout most of the game last year. Averaging 40 points and 6.8 Yards per play while opponents averaged 22 points and 5.2 Yards per play, Florida Atlantic was the class of Conference USA. Now lets not kid ourselves here. They are playing a top 10 Power 5 school in Oklahoma and that is usually something that would shy you away from making this bet BUT, Florida Atlantic returns a whopping 90% production in their defense. Florida Atlantic has to find a new QB but they have some options and return much of a great offense. Baker Mayfield is gone making Oklahoma in a similar position and will be starting over with QB Kyler Murray a Texas A&M transfer that also was a top 10 draft pick in baseball whatever that means to this season. The offensive kicker here is that Florida Atlantic received QB Chris Robinson from OKLAHOMA and just maybe his knowledge of the Oklahoma offense will really help the Owls here. The real question is how good will Oklahoma be on defense? Oklahoma ranked 67 last year in total Defense giving up 5.8 yards per play this years team lost 48% of their production… The real deciding factor to bank on here is the huge hangover Oklahoma has from losing that heartbreaking game at Georgia and I am a believe that it will affect this game. FAU +21 and sprinkle the money line
Akron vs Nebraska -24
Akron returns a ton of defense and their QB Kato Nelson. Nebraska returns 70% of a bad defense. Both teams will have a new QB. Akron returns 87% of defense. I love Scott Frost but this first game of his should not be a blowout. I have this game in my power rankings with home field Nebraska by 17. Akron +24 1U
BYU vs Arizona -12
Well if you listened to previous podcasts then you know I am high on Arizona. New coach Kevin Sumlin will look to make a statement with his huge weapon in Kalil Tate. The Defense returns a staggering 79% and retains coordinator Marcel Yates who worked with Sumlin in the past. I think there is good reason for this and I am looking for better numbers here. In the mean time BYU returns a bad offense a mediocre D, and a Quarterback controversy. BYU should not be able to keep up with Arizona and this could be a blowout. AZ – 12 and I like it to 14 1U
Indiana vs FIU +10.5
Indiana doesn’t return a ton of production but FIU returns even less. At least Indiana returns Peyton Ramsey at QB. We also forget about Nick Westbrook who was hurt and out for the season the first game last year. FIU will be replacing a QB with a graduate transfer James Morgan. Most of all this is a pure power ratings play favoring the Big 10 by 14 points… Indiana -10.5 1U
UNLV vs USC O/U 62
So we know that USC returns pretty much nobody on offense and about 2/3 of defense. UNLV on the other hand is a ground team that runs the ball 64% of the time. USC was looked at as a reload type team but I think it may be too much to ask to have to replace all of those skill positions this early in the season. I definitely like USC to win big vs this Running team of UNLV but I also think USC will run the ball a ton since they have a new QB. There will not be enough time to get to 62 points. Under 62 1u
Premium: Michigan vs Notre Dame O/U 48
So we know that Michigan has maybe the number 1 returning defense in all of football this year, but we cannot ignore the fact that Notre Dame only allowed 21.5 points per game last year and 5 yards per play. This is with that Miami blow out game factored in. With Michigan only allowing 18 points per game last year and returning Notre Dame is a run first type offense that returns 96% production on defense! i love this Under 48 for 2U
Premium: Ole Miss vs Texas Tech O/U now at 67.5
Ok, you may think i am crazy here but if you look inside the advanced stats you will agree with me. Texas Tech has been an over darling for years!!!! But what happened last year? They only went over their total 5 out of 13 times. The reason for this was they were 124th in Red Zone efficiency at 68%. The Red Raiders do play fast at a top 9 pace but on the other hand Ole miss plays SLOWWWWWW. Matt Luke’s Ole miss team last year only average about 70 plays per game and with all the controversy last year was able to finish the season winning 3 of the last 4. On the other hand Texas Tech majorly improved on defense giving up 32 points per game down from 43.5 in 2016. PLUS they return 10 out of 11 starters on D. Texas Tech only returns 5 starters on offense and only 1 skill position! Jett Duffey will have his hands full at QB the first few games as a sophomore. This game will be played on a neutral site at NGR stadium in Houston giving a slight advantage to the Red Raiders and that stronger defense. Under and wait until 68.5 or more
Other Notable games
Washington vs Auburn -2.5
If it goes back to +3 i’ll possibly take Washington’s side. Gonna wait right before game time and see about a 3.5
Va Tech vs Florida State -7.5 – Good game for me to watch.
Louisville vs Alabama -25 – I think these QBs are still not comfortable so wait it out.
SHARP ACTION REPORT:
Northwestern vs Purdue -3.5 to -2.5 NU down from +3.5 to +2.5 A Little bit of sharp but I disagree with that move
Wake Forest vs Tulane +7 to +6.5 – Tulane from 7 to +6.5 Sharp
Syracuse vs Western Michigan +5.5 to +6 – Syracuse from -5.5 to -6
Army vs Duke -10.5 to -13.5 Duke
Colorado vs Colorado state +6 to +7.5 Sharp on Colorado
Ole Miss vs Texas tech +1.5 to -2.5 Sharp on Tex Tech
Texas vs Maryland +10.5 to +12.5 Sharp on Texas
Umass vs Boston College -20 to -18.5 Public Move, Sharp money is on BC. Public remembers them playing Tennessee and Miss State last year
UNLV vs USC -27 to -24.5 Sharp on UNLV
Marshall vs Miami Ohio -1.5 – 2.5 Miami Oh
Washington vs Auburn -3 to -2.5 Washington Sharp
Indiana vs FIU +12 to +10.5 FIU – I disagree with the move and agree with the sports books
UTSA vs ASU -17 to -18.5 ASU took sharp
Akron vs Nebraska -20.5 to -24 Nebraska I Disagree with the move
Totals:
Tulane vs Wake Forest 61 to 56 but sharp on the Over
Syracuse vs Western Michigan 64 to 64.5 Over
Utah State vs Michigan State 50.5 to 49.5 but sharps on over
Ole Miss vs Texas Tech 62 to 67.5 but Sharps on the under
Washington vs Auburn 54 to 48.5 Sharps hit under
UNLV vs USC 60 to 62.5 but Sharps on the Under
Middle Tennesee St vs Vanderbilt – 57.5 to 57 but sharps on the Over
BYU vs Arizona 62.5 to 60.5 Sharps on under but I am not touching
Most Lopsided move West Virginia +9.5 to -10
If there is a look ahead spot it would be Iowa cause they host Iowa state next week but that didn’t work last year
