Texas Tech vs TCU -9.5 O/U 69.5
Seriously, what gives TCU? You keep overperforming your outlook, and covering spreads. What is it gonna take to end this non-sense? I think a look ahead game to Texas might be the answer. TCU’s offense has been incredible under coach Sonny Dykes and you have to give them a ton of credit for what they have accomplished but I am concerned for this defense that only ranks 84th in EPA per play. Texas Tech hasn’t had a great season by any means once Tyler Shough got hurt, but their defense has held them up rankings 22nd in success rate and 39th in EPA per play. The big thing here for me is something that we need to pay attention to. Tyler Shough should be back from his injury this game. He tinkered some last week with a few plays but didn’t start and the Red Raiders were all ready blown out. I also think that the look ahead to Texas might hurt the Horned Frogs in this spot. Red Raiders are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.
Texas Tech +9.5 – 2 stars
Alabama vs LSU +13.5 O/U 58.5
This game has become interesting over the past few weeks. Alabama has shown some venerability vs Tennessee, Texas, and Texas A&M while LSU started off a bit slow and then has been rolling over the past few weeks. Metrically, Alabama has a huge 2.11 yards per play advantage as well as top 5 in both offensive and defensive EPA, but LSU has been creeping up ranking 12th in offensive EPA and 43rd on defense. The big question here is if this spread is justified, and I do not think that it is. LSU is good against stopping the pass ranking 24th in opponent passing success rate and that is where Alabama gets their yards. The Tide’s rushing offense only ranks 60th in success rate, and they have become more of a mask for the pass. I think that the 3rd element to LSU’s offense is Jayden Daniels rushing the football. LSU should be able to pick up some big 1st downs being that Alabama only ranks 30th in opponent rushing success rate. This is a huge night game here in Death Valley, and both teams are coming off of the bye. Last year, a much worse LSU team played this Alabama team close. Take the points.
LSU +13.5 – 2.5 stars
