SMU vs Memphis -5.5 O/U 70.5
Straight up poppin bottles. This game should be high flying. SMU averages 504 yards per game at a very efficient 11.4 yards per play. Memphis isn’t too shabby either at 456 yards per game and 12.2 yards per point. This game may decide who wins the AAC west! Memphis definitley wins the yards per play argument who is a net .7 yards per play better than SMU but the Mustangs have had the harder schedule and Memphis hasn’t faced a passing offense as strong as this one with opponents like Navy, Louisiana Monroe, Tulane and South Alabama. I think when they lost to Temple they were exposed a bit. Memphis has always relied hard on their run game and this year they are a little short at 5 yards per rush while SMU his holding opponents to 3.3 yards per rush. How do you not love the Job that Texas transfer Shane Buechele has done for this team? He came in with a chip on his shoulder and is showing the part. I think if SMU happens to be straight up poppin bottles this game, they can actually win it.
SMU +5.5 – 2 star premium shared
Miami vs Florida State -4 O/U 47.5
This game is straight forward for me. Florida State averages 77 plays per game which is top 15% in pace. They also have a good offense at 5.6 yards per play and averaging 29 points per game. Their defense is a bit average giving up 29 points per game as well in a weak conference. Miami has been decent on offense themselves averaging 27 points per game and 5.9 yards per play but their defense is pretty sporadic giving up a bunch of points to Virginia Tech and Georgia tech yet holding teams like Virginia and Pittsburgh under 13. My power ratings has Florida State by about 3 and the Algorithm has it at 3.5 but what the numbers are telling me is that this total should go over the total. This is a rivalry game and when that happens you see more creativity and risks being taken by both teams. I love the fact that Florida State being at home should dictate the pace of this game and Miami will have to throw the ball if they expect to keep up.
Over 47.5 – 2 star premium shared
UAB vs Tennessee -12 O/U 47.5
This is my best free play. Tennessee has really been improving since the start of this season and it really shows. SEC talent sometimes takes a little time to gel and it all is coming to fruition for this Vols team. Over the last 3 games, Tennessee has beaten Mississippi State by 10, kept up with Alabama minus a huge 14 point swing turnover, and beat South Carolina by 20 points. Now looking at UAB at 6-1, one would think that they should almost be favored in this game but as Lee Corso says, NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND. UAB is FAKE NEWS this year and their schedule shows it. Their schedule ranks 189th which is lower than anybody in the FBS. The teams they have played include Akron, South Alabama, Rice, Alabama State, UTSA, Old Dominion and lost to Western Kentucky. NOT 1 TEAM IN THE TOP 100!!! Tennessee’s schedule ranks 18th in the nation. Their QB Jarrett Guarantano is probable to play as well. I have this game 14.5 point minimum.
Tennessee -12 – 4 star best bet premium shared
