College Football:
Wake Forest vs UNC -2.5 O/U 76.5
If you like fast pace, no defense and lots of points, this might be the game for you. Will Wake Forest remain undefeated after this week? It feels that they finally play a team that has somewhat of a pulse if you don’t count Syracuse, Virginia and Louisville but I think that the fighting Dave Clausens team keep rolling. The Deacons rank 11th in offensive explosiveness while the Tarheels rank 14th. North Carolina has the better defense ranking 87th in success rate to Wake’s 114th, but Wake allows less points per game at 24 to 30. UNC has had a harder schedule somewhat but they do not have any big wins. Both teams are about equal in yards per play but what I really like from Wake is their resilience even with that bad defense. Wake Forest ranks 8th in red zone scores while North Carolina ranks 86th. Mack Brown is starting to remind me of the Mack Brown that got fired from Texas. I like wake here and I also like their team total over 37 as an insurance policy.
Wake Forest +3 – 1.5 stars and team total over 37 – 1.5 stars
Wisconsin vs Rutgers +13 O/U 38
This is a game where the market thinks that Rutgers won’t score much but Wisconsin should put up just enough to win with comfort. Not long ago, the Badgers offense ranked 129th in EPA/Play. They now have moved all the way up to 118th scoring 20 or more points their last 3 games. The good news for the Badgers is that they play Rutgers who is mediocre at defense ranking 30th in opponent EPA per play and 99th on offense. Wisconsin even with bad showings against Michigan, Penn State. and Notre Dame is still a 1.23 net yards per play compared to Rutgers who is -1.09. I don’t know how Rutgers is going to score here barring any bad Badger turnovers. Wisconsin has the 2nd best defense in the league and rank number 1 in success rate in both rushing and passing as well as line yards. I think Wisconsin has stopped beating themselves and they win this game comfortably 27-10.
Wisconsin -13 – 2 stars
Auburn vs Texas A&M -4.5 O/U 49
I really do not understand this line at all. Texas A&M is getting way too much credit for their Alabama win. Auburn in my power ratings is the better team and I am pretty sure that A&M’s quarterback Haynes King still isn’t back. Auburn has improved greatly since their Georgia loss beating teams like Arkansas and Ole Miss who are both maybe better than Texas A&M. The only way that Texas A&M can move the ball is by rushing it averaging 5.3 yards per rush. Unfortunatley for them, Auburn ranks 17th in FBS only allowing 3.3 yards per attempt. The Better quarterback here is Bo Nix averaging 254 passing yards per game while Zach Calzada is only at 55% and 208 yards per game. Auburn has also the harder schedule facing Georgia, Penn State and Ole miss while A&M’s top team was only catching Alabama. I think that this game should be closer to a pickem here and I played Auburn.
Auburn +4.5 – 2.5 stars and sprinkle
