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Ole Miss vs Arkansas +7.5 O/U 54
This is an underrated game this week in SEC land. Both teams are trying to keep their conference and playoff hopes alive. Ole Miss is a very good team and the numbers show it. They rank 5th in offensive EPA and 3rd in defensive EPA. A Massive net 3.47 yards per play is number 1 in the nation. It’s a wonder how they have two losses. Arkansas on the other hand might also be better than their record with three losses as they are a positive +1.37 yards per play ranking 24th in offensive EPA and 27th on defense. Looking at pure metrics, one would think that Ole Miss would be the right side in this game, but there is a glaring reason why the number isn’t double digits. The Rebels have had one of the easiest schedule’s in the SEC playing a cake non-conference with only one ranked opponent thus far after nine weeks in college football. Whenever they weren’t playing a tomato can, they struggled losing at LSU by three points, and home against Kentucky also losing by three. Arkansas has played three ranked teams with one big win against Tennessee. Ya know, the team that beat Alabama. Bobby Petrino is doing a very solid job with the Hogs, as they crushed Mississippi State last week by over 30 points, while Ole Miss only out-gained Oklahoma by 51 yards. Over the last 10 games between these two teams, Arkansas is 9-1 against the spread. This team knows how to play the Lane train. Take the hogs. Woo pig sooie!
Arkansas +7.5 – 2.5 stars
Northwestern vs Purdue -1.5 O/U 47
Ok, this game is gross, but I think that there may be some value here. What do you do when two bad teams play each other? You take the points. As bad as Purdue has been, we have to at least acknowledge that they had a pretty good effort at Illinois scoring 49 points a few weeks back. The Boilers have played two top 10 teams this year in Notre Dame and Oregon. Northwestern has only one top 15 game against Indiana where they were bounced 41-24. Looking at net yards per play, these teams are very close with the Wildcats at -.63 and the Boilers at -.71. Purdue ranks 100th in offensive EPA while Northwestern ranks 131st. Another issue is that Northwestern has been without their starting kicker over the past month or so. The backup is just ok making four out of seven. Purdue is coming off their bye week, and I believe they had a lot of time to get some things fixed. Ryan Brown will probably be the quarterback. He certainly isn’t a downgrade from Hudson Card. Purdue will show up this game. Take the Boilers to win.
Purdue +1.5 – 1.5 stars
