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East Carolina vs Memphis -5.5 O/U 59
This game is going to be a good one and Memphis is coming off of a massive win vs a very good SMU team. The question that I have to ask is, how good was SMU? Well their schedule has been terrible this year and they came off of a loss to Houston messing up their undefeated hopes. Either way, this is a let down spot for Memphis. If you look to see who Memphis has on deck, it is Houston who is tied with Cincinnati to be number 1 in the AAC. I think that constitutes a look ahead spot when ECU is quietly making some noise themselves at 5-4 averaging over 30 points per game. ECU took Houston to overtime a few weeks back and right before that played tough at Central Florida. I like how they just finished off Temple while Memphis lost that game. I do not see a big advantage in the metrics for the Tigers because the Pirates had a harder schedule. I will take the points here.
East Carolina +5.5 – 2.5 stars and sprinkle
Minnesota vs Iowa -5.5 O/U 37
This is a pure power ratings and matchup handicap for me. Iowa has went 4-0-1 their last 5 games vs the Gophers. Last year they won by 30 points. Iowa only allows 2.9 yards per rush and 5.8 yards per pass. When the Gophers face good defenses, they seem to falter. Another concern that I have is that Minnesota is without their three main running backs due to injuries all season long. The Hawkeye’s have been bad their last three games vs Purdue, at Wisconsin and at Northwestern, and I think it’s time to right the ship. My power ratings has this game Iowa -8.25. I’ll grab the Hawkeyes here to win easily and cover in a get up spot at home.
Iowa -5.5 – 2.5 stars
Miami vs Florida State -2.5 O/U 61
I remember not long ago that we all thought D’Eriq King was going to have an amazing Heisman type year, and the Canes were going to be a serious contender. Well, shortly after that, we were proven quite wrong when they lost to Alabama, Michigan State and had a tough game vs Appalachian State. The good news is that Miami found their quarterback in Tyler Van Dyke, and they have improved steadily since he came in. Miami played tough vs North Carolina and then upset NC State, Pittsburgh, and Georgia Tech at home even while losing the turnover battle. The Semi’s on the other hand haven’t shown some of the improvement that I saw with Miami. Their best win was against Syracuse before they knew that they had a quarterback and they caught North Carolina sleeping. After that they lost to NC State and Clemson by double digits. The Canes have a .1 net yard per play advantage even with those 2 bad losses vs Michigan State and Alabama. The Canes also had the harder schedule. I think Miami covers.
Miami -2.5 – 2 stars
