Indiana vs Penn State -15.5 O/U 55
So Penn State was upset last week and had some of their issues exposed. The truth of the matter is that, unlike Michigan and Wisconsin, they still actually may control their own destiny because if Penn State wins out, and beat Wisconsin or Minnesota in the Big 10 Championship, they will certainly make the college football playoffs due to Oklahoma’s worse loss to Kansas State and Georgia’s worse loss to South Carolina. The big question is if Oregon wins out, it would be hard for a biased committee to put only 1 SEC team in and there would be utter Chaos. Even though Penn State shouldn’t have one of those let down after the loss spots, they are still a team had an easy non-conference schedule and have gotten outgained for 4 games. Indiana has a nice +1.3 net yards per play while Penn State is at +1.9. That is a net .6 yards per play for the Nittney Lions. The fact that Indiana has done well on the Road against Michigan State, Maryland and Nebraska gives me confidence to take them as an over 2 touchdown dog here. Lastly, don’t think for one second that Penn State may not be looking past Indiana to Ohio State next week.
Indiana +15.5 – 3 star premium shared
Central Michigan vs Ball State -2.5 O/U 59
When handicapping this game, I think that there are 2 things to look at. The fact that both teams average over 30 points per game and the fact that both teams give up a decent amount of points to below average teams. 27 for Central Michigan and 30 for Ball State. There should be motivation on both sides here because there is a huge tie for first place in the Mac West with 4 teams including them at 2 losses. Being that both of these teams are at a higher pace of play than average, I have to think over on this game.
Central Michigan vs Ball State over 59 – 3 star premium shared
Minnesota vs Iowa -3 O/U 44.5
Minnesota vs Iowa -3 O/U 44.5 – I have this game at a pickem but this is a perfect spot for Iowa to get a big win. Let down spot for Minnesota. The Gophers have a .65 yard per play advantage but let’s face it. They have played nobody besides Penn State. They were also outgained by 48 yards against Penn State. The big thing for me is that they played only 3 road games and gave up over 30 points to Fresno State and Purdue. Rutgers can’t even really be counted. The keys for me for this Handicap here is that Minnesota averages 38 points per game and 6.4 yards per play. I really think this is the game that Iowa puts some points on the board but I can also see Minnesota getting back into this game later. Iowa has had a much harder schedule than Minnesota ranking 24th in the nation to Minnesota’s 70th but Iowa still manages to average 24 points a game. I think that they should put up at least that amount of points after a string of tough defenses that they have played.
Iowa vs Minnesota over 44.5 – 1.5 star premium shared play
Bonus play – Michigan -13.5 vs State – Big bro vs Little bro. Harbaugh will run up the score. State is very injured as well.
