Liberty vs NC State -3 O/U 67 –
Well now that Liberty is getting the respect that they deserve, It’s time to now fade them as a short dog here. NC State has been an improving team. After their Virginia tech loss they beat Pitt, Virginia and Duke. They also kept up with Miami quite well the week before and they absolutely blew out Florida State. Liberty is obviously a good group of 5 team and they have a very good offense but their strength of schedule is very week ranking 136 on Jeff Sagarin. NC State’s schedule ranks 33rd which is a huge difference here. I have to throw the metric’s out this game due to this discrepancy. Virginia Tech 2 weeks ago should have won that game without the bad timeout call to ice a 59 yard field goal with no timeouts. There is now a lot of film on Liberty and Dave Doeren will take advantage. NC State is fighting for the integrity of the ACC being that Liberty beat 2 teams here already. I gave this out at 2 but I like it at 3 so buy it down if you must.
NC State -3 – 2 star premium shared play
Tennessee vs Auburn +11 O/U 49.5
This is a pretty big spread for somewhat of a low total here. Both of these teams have had their ups and downs this season. Tennessee after beating South Carolina has 4 losses in a row but 2 of those losses were named Georgia and Alabama which helps. The Vols are coming off the buy looking to save their season here. They were a ranked team a few weeks back but haven’t been playing like one lately. Tennessee is a bad -1.1 net yards per play while Auburn is +.5. Both of these teams are coming off of the bye. QB Jarret Gaurantano is a bit banged up but should play this week for the Vols. There are 2 things here to this Handicap. First of all, Tennessee has had the harder schedule only playing one really good defense in Georgia. The number 2 things for me is that Auburn is in a massive look ahead spot to Alabama next week for the Iron Bowl. Normally Auburn plays a bad team like Samford before this game and this really changes it up a bit. My power ratings have Auburn winning by 7.5 here and not 11. Auburn is still really young in the trenches and are venerable. I think Jeremy Pruitt gets it right here.
Tennessee +10.5 – 2 star premium play and sprinkle
Illinois vs Nebraska -15.5 O/U 59
Wow, Nebraska is laying over 2 scores here. When was the last time that happened? Do they even deserve this? A couple of things pertain to this game. First of all, Illinois is coming off of a nice win vs an Improved Rutgers team. The Illini are better than we thought and they are improved on my power ratings. Number 2. Nebraska beat Penn State but were massively outgained in yardage by over 200 yards and had some defensive scores. Their new quarterback Luke McCaffery only had 150 passing yards. This win was more about Penn State than Nebraska. Third, Illinois gets a bunch of guys back from Covid protocol including their starting quarterback Brandon Peters. Lastly, according to my power ratings, this spread should be more around 9 points than over 14. I like this play a lot here. Take the fighting Lovies to cover and maybe even win.
Illinois +15.5 – 2.5 star premium shared and sprinkle
