Texas vs West Virginia -2.5 O/U 56.5
This game is interesting being that both teams are in trouble. These programs have 6 losses and have to win out to make a bowl game. I think that you will see some serious motivation here. Most of the time people think defense in this situation and that is why this line is so small, but it’s a bit too hard for me to get so low here. The Longhorns give up 32.5 points per game while the Mountaineers are at 24. Both defenses are in the bottom 89 in yards per play. This is in a big 12 conference that for some reason has some weaker offenses this year with apologies to Baylor. Texas at least is putting up 37.5 points per game at 6.44 yards per play. Texas, even with Bijan Robinson out, should be able to move the ball. West Virginia averages 25.7 points per game and 5.47 yards per play against a Texas defense that just gave up 57 points to Kansas and ranks 94th in success rate. I think this total is a bit too low for this game and I’ll grab the over.
Over 56.5 – 3 stars
Syracuse vs NC State -11.5 O/U 50.5
This is your classic overreaction and spot play handicap. Syracuse is coming off of a blow out loss at Louisville. They couldn’t get anything done this game but at least they played close games vs the best teams in the conference vs Clemson and Wake Forest only losing by 3 points and beat Virginia Tech and Boston College outright. NC State is coming off of a tough game vs Wake Forest but the game wasn’t only tough, it pretty much took them out of ACC contention unless Clemson beats Wake Forest this week and Wake loses their final game at Boston College which isn’t likely. Either way, I do not have Syracuse as that bad of a team this year and this number is wrong. Cuse is the much better rushing team at 5.5 yards per attempt to NC State’s 4.2. The Orange also has a nice positive .9 yards per play while NC State barley edges them out at +1.2. That is pretty close if you ask me. Syracuse is playing for a bowl game here being stuck with only 5 wins with Pittsburgh on deck afterword’s while NC State is playing the wait and see game. Take the Orange plus the points.
Syracuse +11.5 – 2.5 stars and sprinkle
Oklahoma State vs Texas Tech +10.5 O/U 56.5
How ugly do you want to get? Well, if you do some research in this game, it becomes not so ugly after all. Since the Red Raiders lost Tyler Shough, they have struggled at quarterback and had some bad losses but I think that they may have found something last week in Freshman Donovan Smith. He threw the ball quite well hitting 22 out of 35 passes at 322 yards with 3 touchdowns and 1 interception against a tough Iowa State defense. I know that this team has a new football coach coming in for next year in Lubbuck, but I think that the players are playing hard for interim coach Sonny Cumbie. Now my power ratings has Oklahoma State winning by 7.75 points but we must not forget that the Pokes have Oklahoma on deck in a massive look ahead spot. Oklahoma State only has a .4 net yard per play advantage over Texas Tech and Tech has the more explosive offense. I am going to roll with the big home dog here and I think they could win this one outright.
Texas Tech +11.5 – 2.5 star premium and sprinkle
