TCU vs Baylor +2.5 O/U 58
The time has come and the devil is calling TCU to pay their dues. Hey, I like TCU and what they have accomplished, but this is college football and Baylor is a very solid team with a great defensive minded coach. It is true that TCU has been quite fortunate in their schedules playing against some injured quarterbacks, but this isn’t the main part of this handicap. What I like about Baylor here is that they are the defending Big 12 champions, and they have a shot to be back in the Big 12 championship game. They also have a decent passing defense ranking 40th in yards per attempt to TCU’s 52nd. Baylor’s defense ranks 36th in yards per play to TCU’s 54th. The way to beat TCU is to control the clock, and Dave Aranda knows this. It is clear that TCU has the better offense, but that doesn’t always show up as we know on the road, and Baylor has the coaching and the D to make a difference here. Another intangible part of this handicap is that TCU beat Baylor by two points last year which kept them out of the college football playoffs. They may want some revenge for that. I have TCU 2 points better on a neutral so being a 2.5 point favorite on the road doesn’t add up.
Baylor +2.5 – 2 stars
Indiana vs Michigan State -10.5 O/U 47.5
One of the most annoying coaches in the Big 10 is definitely Tom Allen. He screams at refs and is actually wrong about it a good percentage of the time. In saying that, you also have to feel sorry for him going against the Big 10 East which is almost impossible to remain successful against such strength. Anyways, this disappointing Indiana team now gets to face a defense that ranks 106th in opponent success rate and 121st in success rate against the pass. For as bad as Indiana is, they rank number five in passing attempts at a huge 58% of all plays. Michigan State should also have success moving the ball against Indiana where the Hoosier’s rank 128th in defensive success rate against the pass. Indiana moves the ball fast ranking number 1 in all of college football in Tempo.
Over 47.5 – 2.5 stars
Bonus Play: Texas Tech vs Iowa State under 47.5 – 2 stars – Iowa State is only allowing 16.7 points per game at home. Texas Tech just has an average offense at best and the weather will be freezing today.
