Colorado vs Utah -24 O/U 52.5
This game is really about the situation here. Utah just had their biggest win of the year against Oregon and now they have to prepare to beat them or revenge their Beavers loss in the Pac 12 title game. Utah has no shot whatsoever to get to the college football playoffs, but what they do have here is a game that really means nothing to them while it means everything to Colorado to finish out a disappointing season. Now my power ratings have this a 20 point spread and I might even be a little low here but at the same time, why should Utah risk their starters here when they have much bigger fish to fry vs one of the Oregons. Now I know that the Buffalos have bad numbers this year, but I do like the fact that Colorado just showed motivation with 7 losses last week beating Washington and I think that they will show up this game for a good finish to the year. This is a situation where Utah would not be smart to keep their starters in if up 3 or more scores.
Colorado +24 – 1.5 stars and sprinkle
Troy vs Georgia State -6.5 O/U 50
I like betting spots this time of year, and there is no better spot than betting on a team with 5 wins on their last game trying to make a bowl game. Troy is a team based on having a very stout defensive line and it really has worked well for them. The Trojans rank number 26 in line yards and number 1 in sack rate. Troy only allows 3.3 rushing yards per attempt that that is where Georgia State needs to thrive. The Trojan’s weakness is just having a bad offense that can’t move the ball, but they at last scored 21 or more points 5 out of their last 6 games. Troy is +.2 in net yards per play, Georgia State is -.2. Georgia State ranks 78th in EPA margin, Troy ranks 81st. I can see Troy winning this important game outright.
Troy +6.5 – 2.5 stars and sprinkle
Ohio State vs Michigan +8 O/U 64
This is the best game of the weekend hands down and I must say that it is very nice to see that Michigan is a top 6 team now along with Ohio State’s greatness of being top two. Unless you have been living under a rock, you know that Ohio State has owned this matchup and hasn’t lost to Michigan since 2011. Ohio State has amazing metrics and their defense is actually improving. The Buckeye’s rank number 2 in EPA margin only behind Georgia while Michigan ranks number 10. IF Ohio State has a weakness, it is against the pass where they rank 58th and Michigan ranks 21st in Pass EPA. Ohio State’s offense has been so strong this year that they average 7.98 yards per play. Being that they give up 4.99 on defense, they average a massive 2.99 positive net yards per play. Michigan is at about +1.62 but that’s still far under the Buckeye’s. One thing that I think that we will see is a lot of points being scored because no defense has been able to contain these two teams. My number on the side is 8.25 so no play there but the total is screaming at me. Michigan averages a huge 37 points per game and they even put up 38 vs Wisconsin while Ohio State averages 47 points per game. I like the over here in this matchup. These teams have scored at least 65 points or more five out of their last seven matchups and the offenses here look too good not to repeat. I also like the fact that Michigan is at home and I think it will be more comfortable for them to put up some points.
Over 64 – 3 stars
