Tennessee vs Vanderbilt +14 O/U 66
This handicap is one of the simplest ones in the book. The big question is, how many points in Hendon Hooker worth to the team? Looking at how bad the Vol’s defense is, I have to say at least 8. This is a very strange spot and the Vols are probably trying to keep their heads up with backup Quarterback Joe Milton who used to play for Michigan and failed miserably. There is a reason why Milton is the backup here and I do not think he has had any aspirations of being a starter since he left Michigan. In saying that, My power ratings have this a 13.5 point spread, but it is very hard for me to imagine how this team picks themselves up after losing their chances of being in the college football playoffs. If this team picks themselves up, beats a bowl hungry Commodores and covers this large spread, I will tip my cap to them. In the mean time I will take the points.
Vandy +14 – 2.5 stars and sprinkle ML
Middle Tennessee vs FIU +19.5 O/U 55
This game is disgusting and I advise you not to watch it. In saying that I think that we should bet on it. FIU is one of the worst teams in football and their season is certainly over, but here they are playing a defense that gives up 5.47 yards per play and ranks 75th in explosiveness. Both teams play fast ranking top 25 in tempo which really favors the over. Middle Tennessee State has a pretty good offense averaging 29 points per game and should have no trouble scoring against a defense that gives up 38 points per game. I think that I can get 21 points out of FIU here at home and according to this spread, the Blue Raiders should then get at least 40. Take the over.
Over 55 – 2 stars
Michigan vs Ohio State -8 O/U 57
The big game is finally here and Ohio State has been waiting all year for this. Before last week when Tennessee lost, this was looked at as a potential playoff game but now I am not so sure about that. Ohio State for the year is number 1 in EPA margin while Michigan is number 3. I think that bodes well for a middle of the road total of 57 barring any bad weather. Looking at how these two teams match up, Michigan is number 5 on both offensive and defensive success rate while Ohio State is 8th and 7th respectively. Ohio State has the net yards per play advantage at 2.86 to 2.29 and they are playing at home. The weather so far looks decent in the lower 50s with no wind. This should help Ohio State out being that they have the flashier and more explosive offense. From an injury note, Michigan is coming into this game pretty banged up, but they really dodged a bullet last week with Blake Corum leaving the game, yet seen walking around ok. Michigan is hopeful to be getting their tight end Luke Schoonmaker back and Ohio State might get Jaxson Smith Njigba finally to finish off the season in style. From a matchup perspective, there isn’t any huge advantages minus that Ohio State ranks higher in explosive plays at 30th to Michigan’s 122nd. Michigan has a slight turnover advantage. Both teams do not have a great strength of schedule. I have to say that before last week, Michigan looked the more resilient team, but now I have questions on both sides of the ball. What I will say is that my power number on this game Is Ohio State -6.5 giving them 3 for home field advantage. I have Ohio State the better team due to their yards per play and scoring efficiencies, but it certainly doesn’t warrant a spread past the seven, and that is where I think that there is some value on the Wolverines here. Ohio State is a second half team which showed last week, the 1st week vs Notre dame, at Penn State, and of course the stinker against Northwestern. Take Michigan +8, but wait and make sure that Corum is playing. I also would consider a buy back in the second half for a middle.
Michigan +8 – 2.5 stars
