Kansas State vs Iowa State -14
Ever here the old saying, win one for the Gipper? Well right now Bill Snyder of Kansas State is the Gipper and his players love him. Kansas State hasn’t missed a bowl game since 2009 and it kinda put Bill Snyder on a bit of a hot seat with the fans. Kansas State has a very good defense this year and has finished the last 3 games well losing to TCU by only 1 point and then beating Kansas and Texas Tech outright. Kansas State also has a nice signature win against Oklahoma State this year and they only lost to Texas by 5 points. Iowa State isn’t exactly a juggernaut here allowing 5 yards per play and only getting 5.56 on offense. They are also bowl eligible here so no motivation to whoop on the Wildcats. Iowa State’s strength is their passing game while Kansas State’s strength is stopping the pass allowing only 6.6 yard per attempt. With a super low total at 40 points for this game this easily fits into our 20% theory of the spread being over 20% of the total. Take the Dog
Kansas State +14 and ML Sprinkle
UAB vs Middle Tennessee State +2.0
UAB has been a sports bettors dream this year. Such an amazing story for coach Bill Clark bringing a team that didn’t exist in 2016 to the leader in Conference USA. A nice 8-3 against the spread has been a sports bettors go to team and now with this last game they have a chance to go undefeated in their conference. Wait! Hold up. Middle Tennessee state is 1 game from being bowl eligible and if Florida International loses the earlier game against Marshall then Middle Tennessee has a change to represent in the conference USA Championship against UAB. That is 2 motivational spots there. Plus what is more important to coach Clark? Being healthy for their championship game, or attempting to go undefeated? UAB was really banged up after facing Texas A&M last week and the injury report shows it. QB AJ Erdly is questionable as well. Power rankings has this closer to a pickem. The motivation here lies with Middle Tennessee State and Brent Stockstill is finally healthy.
Middle Tennessee State +2
Maryland vs Penn State +13.5
So our Big 10 power ratings has this game at Penn State +13 so no value there but this handicap involves 2 things that has happened the last 3 weeks. Penn State’s season pretty much crumbled after getting destroyed by Michigan and Maryland has realized that their back up QB Tyrrell Pigrome is better than Kasim Hill and it showed the last few weeks. Prigrome has a better passer rating and completion percentage so far and his poise showed last week vs Ohio State. He can also run the ball when needed. I think Maryland has found something the last few weeks and are fighting for bowl consideration. On the other hand Penn State does not have much motivation to clean house here. This isn’t a rivalry and Tracy McSorely has to stay healthy for his NFL future. Lastly Maryland can pound the ball well at 6 yards per carry and that is Penn State’s defensive weakness.
Maryland +13.5
Oklahoma State vs TCU +5 O/U 57
So TCU is trying to be bowl eligible here so this should be a huge get up spot for them right??? It is but there is one major problem. HUGE INJURIES TCU is missing Sean Robinson for the season from a few weeks back and now just lost Michael Collins from last game against Baylor along with Running back Darius Anderson. They also have two starting lineman questionable. TCU the last 3 games could not score more than 16 points and now they play an Oklahoma state team in a huge let down spot. The Cowboys just beat West Virginia at home as has a track record of failing the next game. With Justice Hill beat up from last game this team hardly has a ton of motivation to blow out TCU. At least the Horned Frogs are healthy on defense and will need it to win this game. Their defense ranks first in the big 12 at allowing only 5 yards per play and second in points allowing 24. This game will have a huge dose of running the football and I love this under 57.
TCU under 57
Premium Plays:
Houston vs Memphis – side
Purdue vs Indiana
Coastal Carolina vs South Alabama
Southern Miss vs UTEP
Quick Hitters:
Houston vs Memphis under 77. This is an easy one here. D’Erick king torn his Meniscus last game and is out for the season for their biggest game. King was to Houston like the Lamar Jackson was to Louisville. Clayton Tune now will burn his redshit to start for Houston and try to play this game. Unfortunately these are 2 different quarterbacks with Tune being more of a pocket passer and this team does not have the time to adjust. Memphis on the other hand is just dying to get revenge on UCF and will come in and dominate this game on defense.
Washington State -3 hosting Washington. Your telling me I can have the best team in college football ATS at -3 at home to their rival Washington? This is a huge revenge spot as well. Gardner Minshew is having a dream season and there is no reason to think that Washington will be able to stop this train. This spread means pickem on a Neutral field. Both these teams are pretty equal with Washington State having the edge on Offense and Washington having the edge on D. They are about equal in net yards per play and have had similiar schedules. The handicap here is that I do not think that the Huskies can keep up with this Cougars team because they tend to struggle on the road against tempo as we saw vs Oregon and barley getting out of UCLA. WASU -3
Michigan vs Ohio – No play yet but maybe under
Auburn vs Alabama – Alabama first half for sure. Maybe the full game
