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Arizona vs TCU -11.5 O/U 59.5
This is going to be a good game to bet on this weekend. Arizona is coming off of a rare win against Houston. If they win out, they could “still” make a bowl game. Should we assume that they are excited to travel to El Paso or Boise Idaho to play a team like South Alabama? Probably not. TCU on the other hand just keeps getting better. That is because they have a great coach in Sonny Dykes. The Frogs have won three of their last four games. Looking at the metrics, TCU as a nice 1.63 net yards per play advantage over the Cats. They have cleaned up some of those early season turnovers, and they rank 19th in offensive success rate and 17th in offensive EPA. The Cats were supposed to have a good offense with Fifita and T-Mac, but that really didn’t come into fruition as this team only ranks 107th in offensive success rate and 98th in offensive EPA. The Big problem with the Cats is that throwing the ball is pretty much everything for them. TCU’s defense has not graded out well this season, but they at least rank 39th in opponent passing success rate and 52nd in defensive pass EPA. This is a great spot for TCU as they are coming off of a bye week. Arizona has a huge sandwich spot as they just beat Houston at home, and they have a look ahead to Arizona State where their rival is in position to possibly win the big 12. Take the Frogs this game to cover big.
TCU -11.5 – 3 stars
Indiana vs Ohio State -13 O/U 52
This is really the game that everyone has been waiting for. College football analysts have been kicking and screaming about how much that they think Indiana doesn’t deserve to be ahead of 5 or 6 SEC teams. I personally have Indiana power rated around 11th or 12th best in the country. I also have Ohio State as the top dog in the country and I line this game at Ohio State -13.5. Seems like the market pretty much agrees with me. So does that make me right? I am not so sure. When I power rate teams, I use metrics, talent and some eye test. The Talent makes sense for this spread, but I am not so sure about the other two. Indiana has started off strong in pretty much all of their games, but in a few second halves, they seemed to lose themselves allowing teams like Michigan and Washington to slowly creep back into contention. Ohio State on the other hand has also been guilty of this, where they almost flat out lost to Nebraska after a bye week, and they choked away a great opportunity in Oregon. Looking at the Metrics, one could make an argument that Ohio State hasn’t played anyone with a pulse other than Oregon and Penn State. The Buckeye’s schedule ranks 61st in Sagarin while Indiana’s ranks 77th. Not a huge difference. Indiana has played an easy schedule, but they are still blowing out most of the teams that they face. Net yards per play with Ohio State and Indiana are almost equal with Ohio State at 2.85 and Indiana at 2.72. We must not forget that Indiana quarterback Curtis Roark also missed a game or two. Indiana is 5th in offensive EPA while Ohio State is 2nd, while Ohio State is 1st in defensive EPA and Indiana is 8th. Indiana’s weakness is their offensive line yards only ranking 63rd, but Ohio State’s defensive line yards rank 64th. Really a push in that situation. I expect Ohio State to win, and that talent may be able to find them some margin, but the Buckeye’s tend to start games slow. Indiana is coming off of a bye week and I expect them to score early. Take Indiana 1st quarter and 1st half.
Indiana 1st Q +3.5 – 1.5 stars
Indiana 1st half +7.5 – 1 stars
