UNLV vs Nevada -7.5 O/U 52
This is definitely a rivalry and maybe it has some added juice now that UNLV has fired their coach Tony Sanchez effective at the end of the season. This just means more motivation for the Rebels in my opinion. Nevada is a weird team who won some games that they probably should not have won and lost some games by a very large margin to slightly better teams. Margin really is the key here to my handicap. Whenever Nevada wins it seems to by 7 points or less unless that team is New Mexico or UTEP. The key thing here for me is that UNLV has proven they can win big games. They were motivated against Vanderbilt and motivated last week against San Jose State. The yards per play is both equally bad at about a net -1. Nevada is going to make a bowl game having 7 wins while UNLV is playing this game as their last game of the season. I think the Rebels are doing it for their coach this game and will keep it close if not win it outright.
UNLV +7.5 – 2 star premium shared
West Virginia vs TCU -13 O/U 44
Well I do not love to take large favorites unless there is some real motivation issues. I gave this out at -12. TCU has every reason to go and win this game being that they need 1 more win to go bowling while West Virginia is donezo in that department. The Mountaineers as we know are finishing up a rebuilding year with a new coach and it really showed this year with their greatest win at Kansas State a few weeks back. As a matter of fact their NC State win doesn’t really look very good anymore either. They average about a -.6 net yards per play and cannot run the ball. TCU wasn’t exactly a power house this year but they showed signs of being a good team by beating Texas by 10 points, hanging with Baylor and only a 4 point loss last week at Oklahoma. Gary Patterson should be able to exploit the weaknesses of Neal Browns team here. Most power ratings have this as about a 14 point spread. Mine has it at a 14.5 but the motivation spot makes this game a play.
TCU -13 – 2.5 star premium shared play
Texas Tech vs Texas under 66 – 2 star premium shared
Wisconsin vs Minnesota +2 O/U 47
So as a fan of the Wisconsin Badgers I can honestly say that I am not a homer and do not give out homer plays but when you look into this game there are some big reasons to be on the Badgers this game. First, Wisconsin has had a much harder schedule than Minnesota. The Gopher’s hardest game was playing Penn State at home and didn’t have to play teams like Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State like Wisconsin did. Sagarin has their schedule at 68 and Wisconsin’s at 44. Secondly, Wisconsin is a net .3 yards per play better than Minnesota and this should be even larger had they had the same strength of schedule. Third, this game is going to be cold, rainy and windy which we know favors the running team over the passing team. Wisconsin averages 5.5 yards per rush over Minnesota’s 4.2. Fourth, Wisconsin has destroyed their non-conference opponents while Minnesota struggled to beat Fresno State in over time, South Dakota State in overtime, and almost lost to Georgia Southern. Fifth, this is a HUGE revenge spot for Bucky from losing the Axe at home last year to a motivated Gophers team. The Badgers were very hurt at that time as well as coming off a tough overtime game vs Purdue and they flat out overlooked the Gophers. That will not happen this time and I think the Badgers will ROLLLLL!
Wisconsin -2 – 3 star premium shared play
