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Texas vs Texas A&M +5.5 O/U 48.5
This is probably the game of the week as it has some serious playoff implications. Is it guaranteed that Texas makes the playoffs with two losses and no quality wins? I think not. Texas A&M can win this and get into the SEC championship to face Georgia. It is true that the Aggies dropped a rough one last week in triple overtime at Auburn, but that doesn’t make them a bad team. The Aggies have been undefeated at home since the very first game against the Irish. They are a solid .63 net yards per play on decent SEC schedule that includes playing three ranked teams. The Aggies rank 34th in offensive success rate and 13th in defensive success rate. Texas on the other hand has some very nice numbers ranking 5th in net yards per play of 2.41, and an offensive success rate at 22nd with a defensive ranking 19th in success rate. A Big issue with Texas is that they have not played a great schedule. Their Michigan win didn’t age well, and the only other ranked team that they have played was Georgia at home where they lost by double digits. Their Non-conference was comprised of Colorado State, UTSA and Louisiana Monroe. Another big issues is that Quinn Ewers had sprained his ankle. He is supposed to play, but I could see him certainly be hampered by it this late into the season. I think that Marcel Reed is a very dynamic quarterback, and he can keep his team in any game as long as they do not turn the ball over. I think Texas wins, but by three points or so.
Texas A&M +5.5 – 2 stars
Kansas vs Baylor +1.5 O/U 62
It was fun being on the Jayhawks over the past few weeks, but I now think that the Market has caught up with them. If you think that the SEC is a mess, take a look at the Big 12. Nobody seems to know who might deserve to make it to the Championship game, but what I do know is that Baylor is quietly the best team in the big 12. Early in the season, the Bears have had blown games that they should have won against Colorado on a Hail Mary and against BYU on a very poor start to the game. The Bears have a nice positive .91 net yards per play, while Kansas is at .45. I give Kansas the nod on offense ranking 11th in success rate and 12th in EPA to Baylor ranking 32nd and 51st respectively, but the Bears defense is what has been winning them games ranking 30th in success rate and 68th in EPA compared to Kansas ranking 92nd and 90th respectively. The Jayhawks have been on a nice run in the big 12 lately, but their biggest problem is that they can’t stop running teams ranking in the 100s in opponent rush EPA and success rate. Freshman Bryson Washington has been a beast for the Bears at 5.72 rushing yards per attempt and 10 TDs. I think Baylor at home controls the clock, and ruins Kansas’s chance of making a bowl game.
Baylor PK – 2.5 stars
