On a nice run here:
NCAA:
Nevada vs San Jose State -2.5 O/U 58
This game is huge, and It is essentially for who will be in the Mountain West championship game. Unfortunately for San Jose State, this was supposed to be a home game and now will be played at Sam Boyd Stadium due to Santa Clara’s covid protocols. Even though this game is in the state of Nevada, there won’t be much of a home field advantage without a bunch of fans. I am mad at myself for not betting enough San Jose State games this year but what I will say that this team has really impressed me. San Jose State is undefeated and 3 years ago you would have never guessed that. These 2 teams actually have a lot in common. Both teams are +3 turnover ratio, both teams are about 1.5 to 1.6 positive net yards per play, and both teams haven’t faced Boise State. The schedules for these teams have been really similar and the only edge that I found is that San Jose State is a little more efficient on defense allowing 20.4 yards per point to Nevada’s 16.5. Lastly, I have to look at these teams as a what have you done for me lately scenario. Nevada was out-gained by Fresno State last week while winning the game and Nevada lost the week before at Hawaii. San Jose State’s last 2 games included a convincing win at Hawaii and a double digit win vs UNLV. Going to go with San Jose State.
San Jose State -2.5 – 2 star premium shared play
North Carolina vs Miami -3 O/U 66.5
This one is simple to me and I am going to keep this short. Both of these teams have prolific offenses and great QBs. Sam Howell of UNC is averaging 42 points per game, 68% completion and 26-6 TD to Int Ratio and 1.85 yards per play. Miami’s D’Eriq King averages 35 points per game, 64% completion and 20-4 TD to interception ratio at .9 yards per play. UNC has the better offense and Miami has the better defense. I have both teams power rated equally. This game is in Miami but I think you will see a ton of points here in a shootout. UNC averages a 25.5 seconds per play and I think that would be lower if they weren’t blowing out so many teams and Miami averages 23.25 seconds per play which is pretty fast themselves. I think this is going to be a fun ame to watch and I am definitely on the over here and I like it to 69.
Over 66.5 – 2 star premium shared play
Wisconsin vs Iowa +1.5 O/U 43.5
- This is the lowest price you might get to buy Wisconsin this year.
- Their last 2 games were losses where they out-gained their opponents by over 100 yards each.
- Danny Davis should be back for Wisconsin giving Graham Mertz some more options to throw the football.
- Wisconsin Center Kayden Lyles is most likely out this game but they at least have a week to get the back up rolling.
- Iowa has been playing some solid football since their first 2 games.
- Spencer Petras has emerged into a pretty good quarterback when he looked lost in the beginning.
- Petras is young and has weaknesses of throwing picks.
- My power ratings have Wisconsin winning this game by 2 points.
- Wisconsin has beaten Iowa 7 out of their last 8 games.
- Big spot for Sconnie and you won’t get value like this on them over the next year or so in my opinion
Wisconsin wins PK – 2 star Premium Shared Play
