Indiana vs Iowa -3 O/U 45.5
The Hoosier’s are a team that really overachieved last year but part of that reason was great coaching by Tom Herman and man has he learned out to yell at the officials. The Hoosiers finished their season 6-2 and were 6-1 in Big 10 play while being -.47 YPP. Michael Penix Jr missed a few games at the end of the season but they were still able to play great D and beat Wisconsin before losing their bowl game to Ole Miss. Even as overachievers, Indiana returns a lot of guys on both offense and defense and they held their opponents to only 64% red-zone success. That’s pretty darn good for having no crowd at home. The Hawkeye’s had a rocky start last year losing close games to Purdue and Northwestern but they finished great beating teams like Penn State, Minnesota, Nebraska and Wisconsin. This team had a nice +1.08 NYPP and they are my second highest power rated big 10 team. Iowa returns less starters on offense than Indiana losing Ihmir Smith-Marsette at WR and will have some offensive line shifting to do but they do have experience with Spencer Petras at the helm. Looking at my power ratings discrepancy and especially the -1.5 net yards per play discrepancy from last year, I have Iowa by 6 here but something is keeping me off them. Could be their start last year, could be their changes in the trenches, could be coach Tom Allen. What I do like is little first half scoring. These teams know each other and will play smart, slow, smash-mouth football. I’ll take the under
1st half under 22.5 – 2 stars
San Jose State vs USC +14 O/U 59.5
There is only one way to look at this game. What would it take to bet on Clay Helton the very first game vs the Mountain West Champion? Well it sure isn’t this number. San Jose State returns about 19 KEY starters from last year while USC returns their QB Kedon Slovis, their top RB and one of their top receivers in Drake London. USC swept the Pac 12 South last year but they also had a rocky start against Arizona and ASU barely winning both of those games. San Jose State returns 19 starters on a team that could play all 3 phases of football. At +1.63 yards per play, the Spartens showed that they were more capable than many bottom of the barrel power 5 schools. My power ratings have USC -11.5 here and I think that I see some ways that San Jose State covers this. I could see USC taking it easy in the 4th quarter being up 3 scores or I could see San Jose State pushing them all game.
Take San Jose State +14 – 2 stars and sprinkle
Southern Miss vs South Alabama -1 O/U 57
Is it time to admit that the Sun belt is a better conference than Conference USA in football? This handicap is more about the change that happened last year for these teams. Last year, South Alabama fired coach Steve Campbell but they were not as bad as you would think. They had a very tough conference and were able to manage 4 wins. Kane Womack comes in as head coach from defensive coordinator at Indiana with a lot of success on his resume. Jake Bentley comes in as a very successful quarterback from Utah and he should step right into the position. He also has some good experienced wide receivers in Jalen Tolbert and Jalen Wayne. Southern Miss has a new coach in Will Hall coming in from Tulane. He will have a run first philosophy and a young and very inexperienced QB in Trey Lowe. I like the how the Golden Eagles return a good amount of starters but we can’t ignore that they had an offense that was only able to produce 3 wins and 7 losses in an easy conference. South Alabama won this game on the road last year and I expect the same at home.
South Alabama -1 1.5 stars
