NCAA Let down spots
LSU hosting SELA
Maryland at Bowling green
Notre Dame hosting Ball State
Auburn hosting Alcorn St
BYU hosting Cal
Miss hosting Southern Illinois
Get up Spots
FAU hosting Airforce
Texas hosting Tulsa
Michigan State at ASU
Penn State at Pitt
Look ahead spots
Alabama looking past Arkansas State to Ole Miss
Ole Miss looking past Southern Ill to Alabama
Oklahoma looking past UCLA to Iowa State
Boise state looking past UCONN to OK state
Texas looking past Tulsa to USC. Doubt it
Ohio State looking past Rutgers to TCU
TCU looking past SMU to Ohio State
Picks
Colorado +4.5 1U – This is more of a fade on Nebraska. The fact that the Akron game got cancelled makes this a much nicer spot for the Buffs. Colorado had 596 yards last game vs Colorado state and should be able to put some points up. We all know how good of a coach that Scott Frost is but it is way to early for such a huge impact to be made. Now i do not like Colorado’s returning production only ranked 123rd in the NCAA but i do like the fact that they have their QB Steven Montez. Consistency is key and they are looking to make a comeback this year. Nebraska has a true freshman in Adrian Martinez starting this game.
Colorado vs Nebraska O/U 63.5 PREMIUM
Georgia Southern -2.5 1Unit – I really like the way Georgia Southern finished last year after a terrible start. What I really like is that they are 3rd in returning production at 90%. They got back to their triple option roots and it worked well rushing over 200 yards last game. Umass on the other hand played a very tough game vs Boston College and I do not like how they will match up vs the triple option this week. Power ratings has this game Georgia southern by 3.5 so I will take this key below the key number.
Arkansas -12 1Unit – Is it wrong to keep fading Colorado State? Arkansas has new life after hiring coach Chad Morris. Mike Bobo had a terrible start this year working with a brand new team with brand new players. 130 in returning production is worst in the NCAA. Power rating has this game by 17 points. I’ll go with the SEC here all day at this number.
Arkansas St +36.5 1Unit – Alabama has been very consistent in 1 thing over the past 5 6 years. They blow out SEC and other power 5 schools and then they relax against smaller schools kinda like a big brother beating up little bro.
Buffalo vs Temple – PREMIUM PLAY
Penn State -7.5. After the App State scare, there is no way that James Franklin and Tracy Mcsorly is going to let the worst team in the ACC beat them. This is a Get Up spot for Penn State and the power ratings has this game by 12.
South Carolina +14 – Took this one a long time ago. It’s completely based on Power ratings and returning production. Muschamp has his QB deebo Samual poised here to make a huge statement at home. Georgia lost quite a few players from last year on offense and defense. I like the game cocks to possibly win outright this game and the spread here is good down to 7 points…
Liberty +10 and ML sprinkle vs Army – Liberty played a seasoned old Dominion Team and kicked the absolute shit out of them in their 2018 FBS debut. 52-10. Army had a very tough break by having to play a great Duke team while returning some very low production on offense. Liberty being in the FCS all these years have played many triple option teams and should be ready to hold army. Liberty is trying to prove that they belong and it is working. I am with the Sharps here.
Baylor -14.5 vs UTSA – Baylor is poised to have a great year after a horrible one last year. I love coaches in their second year especially when they are motivated. Matt Ruhl has 88% returning production and this team should be able to easily handle one of the worst teams in football. Power ratings have this game Baylor by 18
Baylor vs UTSA O/U 50 PREMIUM PLAY
E Michigan vs Purdue over 55 – Purdue plays fast. Many times they have a no huddle. Rondale Moore for purdue might have 300 yards this game.
Michigan State vs Arizona State Premium
NFL
Tennessee vs Miami Under 45 – Both teams had terrible offenses last year. Miami averaged 17 PPG and the Titans averaged 21. Now Miami lost their top WR in Jarvis Landry. Ryan Tannahill is just as bad as Jay Cutler IMO. On the other hand the defenses were not too bad here… I think there is some value here especially because Tennessee is a rushing team and they now have a very defensive minded coach in Vrable. They will try and control this game and be careful here
Chicago vs Green Bay +7.5 – Bears had a top 10 defense last year and is super motivated after the Kalil Mack addition. New coach means that we will see a completely different team. The Packers have linebacker woes which should open up the run game for the Bears. I like the Packers to win by 4 points. because they still have Rodgers.
Kansas City vs San Diego -3.5 – Simple. Green QB in Mahomes and fierce pass rush with San Diego. This is ALL you need to know here. I love the fact that Antonio Gates is back. Chargers by 8
