Boston College vs Duke -5.5 O/U 51.5 – This team played Notre Dame tough on Saturday and they were in the game in South Bend all the way until the 4th quarter. Clemson transfer Chase Brice threw for a modest 259 yards with no interceptions in tough field conditions. Boston College on the other hand is more of an unknown to me. Ironically, the Eagle’s starting quarterback is Notre Dame transfer Phil Jurkovec and he came in with a lot of hype. He is a dual threat quarterback from Pennsylvania and a 4 star recruit. He came in with a lot of hype but he wanted more eligibility being that Ian Book decided to stay another year for the Irish. Let’s get into the play here. My key to this Handicap is 3 things. First, Duke has consistency at coach with David Cutcliffe while Boston college has a brand new coach in Jeff Hafley who was a great defensive coach for the 49ers and Ohio State last year. Second, Boston college had a terrible defense last year allowing 6.3 yards per play while Duke allowed only 5.3. Third, I have Duke power rated slightly over 5 points better than Boston College while Jeff Sagarin has it at 6. With home field that should be around 7.25 for me. One thing that I will say is that if this number gets past the 7, I will be buying back on Boston College due to Jurkovec’s upside.
Duke -5.5 – 2 star premium shared play
Miami vs Louisville -2.5 O/U 64.5 – I gave this out at 62 to premium subscribers. Both teams play pretty fast here. Miami was able to change their pace when they received transfer D’Eriq King who thrived on pace over at Houston. He knows how to wear out a defense and he has that Lamar Jackson type speed and decision making. The Hurricane’s ran 80 plays last week against slow ass UAB. They were able to run all over UAB. Speaking of the run. Louisville couldn’t stop anything on the ground last year allowing 5.37 yards per carry and 6.33 yards per play. Louisville put up 35 points in three quarters of play against Western Kentucky last week and both teams will put up some points this weekend in great weather.
Miami vs Louisville over 64.5 – 2 star premium shared –
Navy vs Tulane -7 O/U 48.5 – This line could be a massive over-reaction here to the Navy vs BYU game. Navy looked horrible against BYU but we have to remember that the Fighting Mormons are almost like a power 5 team out there in Utah. Navy was a force last year and it really hurt to lose QB Malcomb Perry, but now that they have their feet wet, I expect this team to get by some of the stupid early mistakes that happen to option teams in their first game such as themselves. Tulane on the other hand had some changes themselves. They rank only 122nd in returning production which is 8th worst and they also have a new quarterback this year. The last three years, this Tulane vs Navy game has been decided by 3 or less points. I only have Tulane by 2 points here and they were not all that impressive vs South Alabama.
Navy +7 – 1 star premium shared and sprinkle
