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Kansas State vs BYU +7 O/U 48
Ever watch a night game in Provo? This should be a good one to close out a college football Saturday. I know that Kansas State has a little rest advantage ad they played last Friday hosting Arizona, but there are other situations that are affecting this game. I think Kansas State could be a little flat after their big win. Maybe not exactly a let down spot, but they could treat this game a little bit less than they should be treating it. The Wildcats should have lost to Tulane. I am not saying that the Cougars are as good as Tulane, but it shows that the Cats are susceptible to smaller organizations. BYU has a stout defense ranking 16th in success rate. They only give up 3.37 yards per rush on a decent schedule that includes winning outright at SMU, and then to Wyoming. The Wildcats also have a solid defense ranking 39th in success rate, but they are a little weaker against the pass ranking 71st in passing play success rate, and 23rd against the run. I give the nod to Kansas State’s offense at 7.02 yards per play, but it’s not like by much as BYU is at 6.3 yards per play to Kansas State’s defense at 5.21. Strength of schedule is something very important to consider in the earlier weeks. Kansas State’s ranks 51st on Sagarin to BYU at 64th. This looks quite close to me. I am gonna take the Cougars in Provo in a night game. I also like the possible upset.
BYU +7 – 2.5 stars
Marshall vs Ohio State -40 O/U 52
They ask me, Kiev, why the heck are you talking about this game? I am because there is value baby!!! This spread is telling you that Marshall should score about 12 points or so. This leaves Ohio State with 40. What do we know about Marshall? Their quarterback Stone Earle hasn’t done a lot yet, but their running game has been decent on a very easy schedule at 6.55 yards per attempt. They struggled at Virginia Tech last week, but they at least put up 14 points on the board. Let’s face it, Ohio State should blow the doors off of this team, but I think that the total is kind of light and here is why. The herd plays fast so far this year. They rank 7th in seconds per play at 22.13. This should give Ohio State a heck of a lot more possessions to be able to put up points. The next big thing for me is that Ohio State is coming off of an early bye week. This team is probably foaming at the mouth to get back on the field. Finally, Ohio State does have a big 10 schedule on deck after this, so I suspect the 2nd or 3rd string to be in for most of the 4th quarter which should allow more points to be scored. I like the over in this game and I also like the team total over for the Buckeyes.
Over 52 – 2.5 stars
