College Football Week 4 Free Plays

Now this game is one that I have had circled for a while now.  Auburn is the most intriguing team SEC team to me and I have them second best for now.  They boost top 11 recruiting classes the last 3 years is very consistent. They lose some trenches to the draft but they return a decent amount of productions with 60% on both sides of the ball. I like how they return most of their skill positions with Seth Williams and Matthew Hill at WR. I love how they return Bo Nix at QB as well.  Auburn hired Chad Morris as offensive coordinator who really didn’t get much of a shot at a Bielema decimated Arkansas team having only 2 years there before he got canned.  My power ratings on them are 21 points better than the Average team.  Kentucky on the other hand had so many quarterback injuries last year that WR Lynn Bowden had to start.  Terry Wilson is the leader coming back with a 65% completion percentage.   He is not as highly regarded as Bo Nix from Auburn tho.  Kentucky had a nice returning production ranking 25th in the nation at 73% and a positive 1 net yard per play but their schedule was easy last year ranking 61st in the nation to Auburns ranking 2nd in difficulty.  Kentucky has been recruiting in the 30s and are way past what they used to be as a team but they still have a very far way to go in order to compete with Auburn.   I have Auburn by 15.25 points here and it is an easy decision for me.   We gave this out at 7 but like it all the way to 10 at this price.

Florida State vs Miami -11 O/U 54

• Mike Norvell has Covid 19 and I am not sure his assistants can do the same job preparing Florida State for a powerful Miami offense.   Crazy enough, Norvell is still coaching with his computer screens and many cameras at different angles on the practice field.  Not creepy at all.
• Florida State had 2 weeks to prepare for this game but is that even enough with all of their problems that they have shown the last few years.
• My power number is -13 on Miami but when I adjust for tempo, it passes the 14.  They play fast, they have a good defense, they are playing at home the small crowd advantage will be there as well as the turnover chain.
• The speed of Miami’s offense will be able to get margin like Central Florida does to all of their opponents.  Miami averages 7.1 yards per play right now and it might stay there if not go up during their ACC schedule.

Miami -11.5 – 2 star premium shared play

Louisville vs Pittsburgh -3 O/U 55.5 – Louisville doesn’t play all that fast.  Last year only 70 plays per game.  They had lots of turnovers last week so I see them being mroe careful with the ball.  Pitts got a solid D and scoring only 21 vs Syracuse isn’t a good look for the offense.  Pittsburgh is a team that will try and control the possessions of the football by running the ball.  They ranked 19th last year in rushing plays per game.  I think the under has value here.

Louisville vs Pittsburgh under 55.5 – 1.5 star premium play