Iowa vs Rutgers +7.5 O/U 34.5
This game is absolutely disgusting and a beg you not to watch it. In saying that, I think it is worth betting on just due to the fact that Iowa is laying points. I honestly do not understand how Iowa should be laying points to any team with a slight pulse. This team is 125th in offensive EPA averaging 13.7 points per game. Spencer Petras is below 50% completion percentage, and that is counting games vs South Dakota State and Nevada. Rutgers isn’t exactly a power house themselves, but they did at least take care of Boston college on the road and they do rank 60th in EPA margin. SUNJ QB Evan Simon is 67% so far so I am not as worried with the other quarterbacks on injury. If Rutgers keeps the turnover margin close to equal, they could win this game outright.
Rutgers +7.5 – 3 stars
Arkansas vs Texas A&M -2.5 O/U 49
I honestly do not know how the hell Texas A&M is laying points against a good SEC team on a neutral field. Texas A&M was massively out-gained vs Miami at home last week, and they lost to Appalachian State. I know that they switched QBs, but I haven’t seen much offensive improvement with Max Johnson only throwing 54% thus far. Hogs quarterback KJ Jefferson played this game last year and won it 20-10. He threw the rock for 2 TDs and 14 yards per attempt. Arkansas is 42nd in EPA margin while A&M is 81st. This is significant seeing that A&M’s SOS ranks 55th to Arkansas’s 37th. The Aggies could have lost to Miami last week at home had the Cane’s been slightly competent in the Red Zone. They were was also outgained by Miami in total yards. Jimbo won’t know what to do if he is playing from behind at any point in the game. Take the Hogs. Woo Pig Soooie!
Arkansas +2.5 – 3 stars
