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Florida vs Kentucky -1.5 O/U 44
I have seen enough Graham Mertz in my life to wonder why Kentucky is only a slight favorite in this game. Florida has no doubt had the harder schedule, but I think that win against Tennessee was more about Tennessee being flat than Florida being good. Florida has the better offensive and defensive success rates thus far, but Kentucky has the better yards per play at 2.82 to Florida’s 1.56. Devon Leary has been throwing the ball downfield a lot and I don’t think that Florida’s secondary has really been tested away from home. Florida is a terrible road team. Since 2019, the Gators are a dismal 35% ATS on the road at 6-11-1. Kentucky after four games has the number 1 offense in explosiveness while Florida’s defense ranks 132 in explosiveness which is 2nd from last. Take the Wildcats.
Kentucky -1.5 – 2.5 stars
Clemson vs Syracuse +7 O/U 52.5
This is an interesting game to say the least. Cuse always plays Clemson tough, and they have covered the last 7 out of 9 spreads against the Tigers. Syracuse owns most of the stats here. They have a 2.8 yards per play margin while Clemson has a 1.8. Clemson has definitely had the harder schedule thus far playing teams like Florida State and Duke, but Syracuse at least played Purdue and a tough military school like Army. Syracuse has a stout defense thus far against the run only allowing only 2.5 yards per rush. This should force the hand of Cade Klubnik who has been sloppy with the ball with fumbles and a few interceptions. Garrett Shrader has been a solid veteran quarterback thus far and he knows how to win games. I think whomever turns the ball over less will win this game. I also think that it’s hard to guage Clemson’s motivation after getting knocked out of the CFB playoffs. Has to be tough on this team to continue when they had higher aspirations. My number is Clemson -3.5 here so we are grabbing the points and sprinkling the ML
Syracuse +7 – 2.5 stars
