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Utah vs UCLA +4.5 O/U 65
This is probably the best game in the Pac 12. UCLA took care of Washington as a dog last week and now they are sitting pretty as a dog again to Utah. If you have watched Utah play football over the past 10 years, you would see that the Ute’s are a much better home team than on the road. UCLA has a good coach in Chip Kelly and a very strong offense ranking 10th in success rate. They are a positive 2.4 net yards per play compared to Utah at 1.78. UCLA’s defense could certainly use some work, but they at least were able to shut down Washington last week allowing only 65 yards rushing and forcing two interceptions. Utah just came off of a big game vs Oregon State and they might be looking ahead here to USC. Take the points.
UCLA +4.5 – 2.5 stars
Kansas State vs Iowa State +2 O/U 45
This is one heck of a low total! I don’t know why everyone likes Iowa State so much. The Clones beat a bad Iowa team and it took them all the way until the end of the game. Kansas State is a legit team this year and they already had their hiccup vs a 4-1 Tulane team. They have already beaten two very good Big 12 teams in Oklahoma and Texas Tech. Iowa State struggled mightily vs Kansas who is good this year, but not great. Iowa State’s loss vs Baylor isn’t aging to well with Baylor looking bad vs Oklahoma State last weekend. The Wildcats have a massive sack margin of seven, and are very stout in the trenches. Iowa State’s offensive line is very suspect and prone to giving up sacks and yards. The Wildcat’s also have a better red zone success rate both on offense and defense. I think they get the win so lay the small number.
Kansas State -2 – 2 stars
North Carolina vs Miami -4 O/U 65.5
After Miami’s performance against Middle Tennessee State, I do not know how this Miami team is laying chalk to a high powered offense like North Carolina. The Hurricanes haven’t played anyone except for Texas A&M and they lost that game out-right. The big mismatch here for me is against the pass. The Cane’s cannot stop the pass for the life ranking 95th in opponent Pass EPA where North Carolina ranks 8th in Pass EPA on offense. Miami’s strength of schedule only ranks 114th while having a net negative yards per play at -.34. North Carolina’s strength of schedule ranks 84th with a 1.28 net yards per play. The wrong team is favored here. I like the Tarheels to win outright.
North Carolina +4 – 2.5 stars
