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Penn State vs Iowa -1.5 O/U 41.5
This might be the biggest game of the weekend. Two huge undefeated Big 10 teams square off in the Midwest! This is also an ugly total here in this game, and it really says that points will be at a premium this game. Both of these teams have had the best starts in the big 10 along with Michigan but I still do not understand why Iowa isn’t the bigger favorite here and I do not understand the Penn State money bringing this so low. Strength of schedule is actually pretty equal on paper with these teams with the slight edge to Iowa especially now that Penn State’s victory over Wisconsin isn’t aging well. When it comes to Yards per play, Penn State definitely wins this one with a +1.89 net YPP to +.75 for Iowa, but going back to strength of schedule, The Nova blowout win for Penn State certainly throws off some of Penn State’s stats. Looking at EPA margin, Iowa edges out Penn State by 4 spots so no real advantage there. My biggest thing in this game is that Iowa’s defense should be good enough to win this game at home. Penn State relies big on their receivers Jahan Dotson and Parker Washington, but Iowa has some of the best corners in all of college football with Matt Hankins and Riley Moss who could defend almost anybody 1 on 1. I like the fact that Iowa is on a little extra rest here and Spencer Petras is playing very well. I had Iowa Power rated higher than Penn State before the season started and I don’t think that anything needs to change here. I have Iowa by about 6 at home with the extra rest. I will take the Hawkeyes here as the short favorite.
Iowa -1.5 – 2.5 stars
Memphis vs Tulsa -3.5 O/U 62
Here is a battle of the underachievers from last week. Tulsa got destroyed at home vs Houston and Memphis dropped an ugly game at Temple. Looking at this game, both teams are a bit flawed. Memphis lost their quarterback Grant Gunnell due to injury early in the season which has put a bit of a stop to their high flying pass offense and Tulsa isn’t the same team from last year without Zaven Collins leading their defense who is now an NFL starter for the Cardinals as well as their QB Brady White who is finished in the league. Some of those wins in 2020 were also a bit lucky in my opinion. I am not really interested in a side in this game but the total sticks out to me some. Tulsa was embarrassed last week and should play more solid defense against a team who has been struggling at QB. Next important piece of information is that Tulsa can only move the ball with the run game this year, and that is where Memphis has been solid only allowing 3.56 yards per rush. Finally, there is going to be some wind this game around 15 MPH in Tulsa Oklahoma and that should hurt both teams passing situation. I am going to take the under 62 points and I like it down to 58.
Under 62 – 2 stars
LSU vs Kentucky -3.5 O/U 50.5
- This is a spot play here for me and I also do not think that the right team is favored.
- Kentucky did a great job last week beating rival Florida but let’s face it, Florida massively outgained the wildcats in yards and really blew the game more than Kentucky won it.
- Up to the Florida game, Kentucky hasn’t really played anyone with a pulse and I do not think that Will levis can pass the ball all that great. Kentucky also should not be able to run much vs LSU being that the Tigers only allow 3.4 yards per rush. LSU at least beat Mississippi State on the road and had to weather the storm the first game of the season vs UCLA.
- Max Johnson has been solid at QB so far for the Tigers and he has a nice 16-4 TD to interception ratio.
- The biggest thing besides strength of schedule is the spot for Kentucky. They are in a massive let down situation and they have Georgia on Deck. I could see them laying down this game while LSU is more desperate after losing to Auburn.
- I am going to take the Tigers here with the hook. I think that they could win this game out-right.
LSU +3.5 – 2.5 stars
