Cincinnati vs Tulsa +3 (+100) O/U 44 –
Cincinnati has come into the scene as one of the favorites to win the American Athletic Conference but I think that Tulsa might have something to say about that. This Golden Hurricane team upset UCF about 2 weeks back. The fact that they have a bye lessons the let down spot here. Don’t get me wrong, I like Cinci this year as well but it isn’t like they are 5 or 6 points better than Tulsa as this line suggests. Lets look at schedules. The Bearcats rank 85th hardest so far playing an FCS team, Army and USF. Tulsa’s schedule ranks 2nd keeping up with Oklahoma State and beating Central Florida outright. I think this home dog may be barking on Sunday and I have to take them with the even money at 3.
Tulsa +3 – 2 star premium shared play and sprinkle.
BYU vs Houston +5 O/U 62.5 –
We gave this out at -3 but there is still some value at 5. This is the last time that you will see BYU this low of a spread this year except for maybe at Boise State. The Cougars schedule is way too easy this year. This BYU team has 4 games under their belt and is ranked in the AP top 15. Their good wins were vs Navy and Troy. Ok, I would personally call those good wins but its better than what Houston has showed so far with just 1 game under their belts beating a bad Tulane team. The big thing to me on this Handicap, is that there was a correction in the look ahead line here after Houston beat Tulane and BYU only beat UTSA by 7 points at home. BYU was more of a 7 or 8 point favorite here before last week. I think that Houston is a good team and all but they tend to have to air the ball out in order to win rather than pound the ball. That heavy pass style of play plays right into BYUs hands as they completely shut down Troy to 7 points. Troy is a team similar to Houston as they throw the ball more than they run it. I like this to -5.5 points here.
BYU -5 – 2 star premium shared
Ole Miss vs Arkansas +3 O/U 76.5 –
Both of these teams are coming off of an extraordinary weekend. Arkansas was robbed by the officials at the end of the Auburn Game where they clearly recovered a fumble from a bad officiating call and replay said the recovery wasn’t clear. It’s almost like the NCAA is openly admitting that they are massively incompetent. Ole Miss on the other hand went score for score with Alabama and not only covered a huge 24 point spread, they almost won the game outright. It’s hard to imagine them getting up for another offensive run here. Now Lane Kiffen’s Ole Miss team plays fast at 21.7 seconds per play but Arkansas has shown some very solid defense against teams like Auburn, Georgia and don’t forget Mississippi State. They have played the hardest schedule in football so far. Arkansas hasn’t controlled the time of possession well only averaging 25 minutes per game at 70.7 plays per game which is a little below average but the reason this total is so high is because they have been putting up enough points to win and they average 22.2 seconds per play. In my opinion, there are just too many things that can go wrong here to not hit this total of 76.5 points and especially in this spot after last weekend I have to take the under. One thing I will say is that if there is not a lot of points scored in the first half, I will hedge that second half and take the over and see if I can set myself up for a nice middle.
Ole Miss vs Arkansas under 76.5 – 2 star premium shared play
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