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Penn State vs Michigan -7 O/U 50
This will be the best big 10 game of the weekend, but seeing Michigan as a 7 point favorite is close to where I have this power rated. Michigan shows that they are a top 5 offense in efficiency and top 8 in EPA, but that is very hard to trust being that their schedule was so easy the first 4 games or so. Sagarin has their SOS 111th. Penn state is the first ranked team that they will be facing. Penn State’s offense isn’t one to get two excited about either being that they also haven’t beaten a ranked team. What I like about both of these teams is their defenses. Each team is holding their opponents to less than 15 points, and both teams rank in the top 14 in defensive EPA. As far as Tempo is concerned, Penn State ranks 79th and Michigan at 119th so I am not worried about a fast game. The under is 5-1 in Nittany Lions last 6 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. The under is 6-1 in Wolverines last 7 games overall.
Take the Under 52.5 – 2 stars
Alabama vs Tennessee +8.5 O/U 65
This might be the best game of the week with College Game Day being there and all. I have to assume that Bryce Young is playing this game. I don’t think there is much that we need to say about Alabama except that they are similiar to what they were last year. Alabama will play some close games, and this is one that the Vols have circled. Alabama has a nice 1.7 net yards per play advantage over Tennessee, but the Vols rank 5th in EPA margin to Alabama’s 7th. Tennessee’s weakness is against the pass. They are down two defensive backs and they give up over 300 yards passing per game. The good thing for Tennessee is that Alabama has to run the football to set up the pass, and if they can’t do that, they are not the greatest passing team this year at only 8.1 yards per attempt and 54th in pass EPA. I have Alabama -6 points here on the road. I am playing Tennessee.
Tennessee +8.5 – 2.5 stars
USC vs Utah -3.5 O/U 65
This night game will be worth staying up for. It is finally time to see what this USC team is all about. USC is now the old Oklahoma of the pack 12. They keep getting by with an easy schedule and they win some gams that they maybe shouldn’t of. Last week, I thought that Washington State put up a decent fight and this game should have been closer. USC only outgained the cougs by 53 yards. I also thought USC should have lost in Corvallis a few weeks back. Utah has had their hiccups vs the Gators and last week when we were on the Bruins, but they also have a huge home field advantage at home and especially at night. Both of these teams are ranked quite similar in offense both 12th and 11th in success rate yet Utah I feel has the better defense ranking 46th in success rate to USC’s 102nd. A big question for USC is Jordan Addison. He is their best wide receiver who is questionable for this game. USC is also more banged up in other positions compared to Utah. I love the fact that Utah played an explosive fast paced team in UCLA last week and I think that helps them prepare for SC this week.
Take UTAH but try and wait for a -3 for 2.5 stars
